Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
College Football Playoff odds for the primary spherical have been circulating for the higher a part of two weeks. Without a doubt, the favorites are receiving plenty of consideration from the betting public.
But there may be additionally an underdog who will get seen.
“There is plenty of motion on Tennessee, each on the unfold and on the moneyline,” mentioned Joey Feazel, head of soccer buying and selling at Caesars Sports.
So maybe Ohio State, a 7.5-point residence favourite, is on alert for the ultimate recreation of the primary spherical.
Bookmakers and professional bettors provide their opinions on the College Football Playoff first spherical odds.
To start with
The CFP opens with a Friday evening kickoff at 8pm ET between No. 10 Indiana and No. 7 Notre Dame. And it is the matchup with the closest level unfold.
The Fighting Irish are -7 (-115) at Caesars Sports, after opening at -8 (-105) and spending vital time at -7.5. But many of the motion goes towards the motion of the road.
“We’ve seen some sturdy motion on Tennessee +7.5. But the cash we have seen up to now has been principally Notre Dame, together with the Under,” Feazel mentioned.
However, the full is definitely up a tick from the Dec. 8 opening variety of 51.5, which sat at 52 late Wednesday evening. But it was as much as 50.5.
Limited curiosity
No. 12 Clemson vs. No. 5 Texas appears to be like like an intriguing matchup. Dabo Swinney’s Tigers are 10-3 total (SU) and 6-6 towards the unfold (ATS), coming into the 12-team discipline to win the ACC title. But Clemson has reached the College Football Playoff seven instances, profitable the 2016-17 and 2018-19 nationwide titles.
And the Longhorns (11-2 SU/7-6 ATS) have an enormous following hungry for a nationwide championship, as they have not received all of it because the 2005-06 season.
Quite a bit might change – and possibly will – between now and Saturday’s 4pm ET kickoff in Austin. But bettors aren’t as enthusiastic about this recreation because the weekend approaches.
“Right now, we’re seeing more cash coming in from Clemson. But that is the least standard playoff recreation up to now,” Feazel mentioned.
This is due partially to the purpose unfold. Texas is the largest first-round favourite in College Football Playoff odds. The Longhorns opened at -11 and are right down to -12 at Caesars.
Feazel famous final week that the seemingly want can be what he known as the “Super Bowl half.”
“If they just like the canine, they will play the moneyline for that worth. If they like the favourite, they will play the purpose unfold,” he mentioned. “So we’d like that half of the Super Bowl.”
This means Texas wins the sport however Clemson covers the large unfold.
Syracuse vs Washington, Ohio State vs Tennessee: Best CFP First Round Bets
Sharp aspect on campus
College soccer betting professional Paolo Pietra he is watching the primary CFP recreation and likes what he sees with favourite Notre Dame.
In one of many largest upsets of the season, Notre Dame stumbled badly on September 7, dropping 16-14 at residence to underdog Northern Illinois by 4 touchdowns. But since then, the Fighting Irish have received 10 in a row by a median margin of 30.8 factors. Only certainly one of Notre Dame’s victories in that stretch had been fewer than 14.
In the primary recreation ever below the 12-team format, Notre Dame enters 11-1 SU/10-2 ATS, whereas visiting Indiana is 11-1 SU/9-3 ATS. That locations each groups among the many prime 5 within the nation in masking the unfold.
The Irish are 7-point favorites over the Hoosiers, who’ve reached double-digit victories for the primary time at school historical past.
While Indiana’s rise to prominence has been one of many constructive tales of the season, Stone likes Notre Dame’s present trajectory and believes it would prevail over the Hoosiers by double digits.
“Indiana failed on their first shot on the large stage, at Ohio State,” Stone mentioned, alluding to the Hoosiers’ 38-15 loss on Nov. 23. “And I feel he is giving it his all within the classroom as soon as once more towards Notre Dame.”
The Irish enable 13.6 factors and 296.8 yards per recreation on protection, and are plus-16 this season in internet turnover margin.
“Notre Dame’s protection is actually enjoying at a excessive degree, and usually wins the all-important turnover battle,” Stone mentioned. “Also, the Irish have a wholesome and proficient Riley Leonard at quarterback. I like Notre Dame -7 and search for the Irish to tug away within the second half.”
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Beginning and finish of Saturday
No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Penn State kicks off the CFP triple-header on Saturday, midday ET. The Mustangs are 11-2 SU/8-5 ATS, whereas the Nittany Lions are 11-2 SU/6-7 ATS.
Not surprisingly, the motion favors the Big Ten runner-up enjoying on their residence courtroom.
“We’re seeing some most popular cash are available in. Not as a lot as Notre Dame, however it leans towards Penn State,” Feazel mentioned. “But this line has not moved because the opening.”
The Nittany Lions are steady favorites at 8.5 factors as of Dec. 8.
Saturday’s last kick is the aforementioned matchup between No. 9 Tennessee and No. 8 Ohio State, at 8 PM ET. As famous above, Caesars has the Buckeyes (10-2 SU/6-6 ATS) as 7.5-point residence favorites towards the Vols (10-2 SU/7-5 ATS).
Along with underdog Tennessee seeing many of the motion — each as a 7.5-point highway canine and on the hotshot to tug the upset at +235 — the Total is getting some noteworthy motion. It opened at 47, fell to 46.5/46 Wednesday morning and was at 46.5 late Wednesday evening.
“We noticed extra impactful motion on the Under 47,” Feazel mentioned.
Texas: Should the Longhorns play Arch Manning within the CFP?
I like large bets and I am unable to lie
As talked about on this area final week, the biggest wager reported on College Football Playoff championship futures got here in Texas. A Louisiana buyer of Caesars Sports dropped $1.5 million on the Longhorns at +390 to win the nationwide title.
So, if Texas had been to play 4 video games over the subsequent month, the bettor would gather a whopping $5.85 million, for a complete win of $7.35 million.
But a number of the most fascinating bets contain the longest pictures in a 12-team discipline.
For instance, this week, a Caesars buyer in Nevada wager $2,000 on Arizona State +4000 to win all of it. If the Sun Devils did the sudden, the bettor would earn $80,000.
Better but are these two little bets with large potential – unlikely as it could be – at Caesars:
- $100 on Arizona State +100000 – in a barely simpler to learn format, i.e. 1000/1 – to raise the trophy in Atlanta on January 20. If the Sun Devils lead the desk, the bettor turns that hundred {dollars} into $100,000. The wager was made on July 18th.
- $400 on Boise State +25000 (250/1) to win the CFP, on a wager positioned on July 16. If the Broncos win the title, the bettor wins $100,000.
These are two very good tickets to take a seat on proper now, and each will stay not less than one other week, as ASU and Boise State earned first-round byes. We’ll see what bettors on each groups suppose subsequent week when the second spherical matchups are known as.
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting business. He lives in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys enjoying golf in 110-degree warmth. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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