2024 CFP Quarterfinal Picks, Predictions: Penn State to Win, Coverage vs. Boise State

My favourite wager of the 4 quarterfinal video games is for Penn State to win and canopy towards Boise State.

The Broncos had a implausible season and earned a first-round tie for the postseason. They acquired a first-round bye, however that does not imply they’re considerably higher than Indiana or SMU, two groups that have been uncompetitive for 60-plus minutes towards their opponents.

I see the identical final result for Boise State.

Boise State has suffered only one loss this season towards the No. 1 ranked crew. Lost by three factors in Eugene to the Oregon Ducks in mid-September.

I wish to warn you to make use of that outcome to preview this sport. Almost 4 months have handed and groups, coaches and gamers are altering.

For instance, two weeks into the NFL season, the New Orleans Saints have been unstoppable and their offensive coordinator was the following Sean McVay. And everyone knows how that state of affairs performed out.

Therefore, it is foolish to make use of that sport to foretell the result of this one, so I will not. It is, nonetheless, truthful to say the Broncos’ convention schedule and the way that correlates to each Indiana and SMU’s outcomes.

According to SP+, the Broncos have performed two video games towards groups ranked thirty eighth in SP+ crew effectivity. That was UNLV, who they beat by 5 in Las Vegas after which by two touchdowns in Boise to finish the season. The remainder of the convention opponents all ranked between 95 and 120.

Just a horrible program.

The identical energy of schedule argument was used to preview Indiana and SMU towards Notre Dame and Penn State, respectively. Boise State will play a crew the caliber of which it hasn’t seen all season. Penn State’s athleticism, dimension, energy and energy will likely be an enormous check.

Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos’ all-world operating again, could also be the perfect participant ever on the sphere, however what if he struggles to realize yards towards a troublesome, bodily Penn State protection? Is Boise State throwing the ball to win? No. Boise State’s protection ranks 71st in yards per play. And whereas Penn State’s offense might lack explosiveness, it will possibly transfer the ball at will towards this Broncos crew.

Last observe on this sport: When there’s a plus image subsequent to the Penn State betting line, you wish to fade the Nittany Lions. They do not cowl these video games regularly. However, when there’s a minus earlier than their title, they cowl on a regular basis, with Penn State coach James Franklin holding a document of 19-1-1 when his crew is favored between seven and 24 factors.

PICK: Penn State (-11) wins by 11+ factors

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper sort out for the University of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.

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