Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Are the Chiefs that good or are they that fortunate? This is a query practically each NFL fan is asking proper now.
Well, the jury should still be out. However, contemplating they’re nonetheless undefeated 10 weeks into the season, it is exhausting to guess towards them.
Read on to learn how I guess on Kansas City, together with a few different prime bets for this weekend’s slate.
(All instances ET)
SUNDAY NOVEMBER 17
Brown @ Saints (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
The New Orleans Saints acquired a brand new head coach rebound final weekend after the firing of Dennis Allen. They are nonetheless not workforce and wanted 109 yards and two touchdowns from Marquez Valdes-Scantling to beat the Falcons by three.
That’s 109 yards and two touchdowns that should not be anticipated towards the Browns on Sunday.
The Saints are nonetheless severely affected by accidents on offense and have offered their finest cornerback to the Commanders. They’re simply not a proficient workforce, regardless of beating Atlanta final week.
The Browns are leaving. They had two weeks to work on an offense towards Jameis Winston. After having a scorching efficiency one week, then a chilly efficiency in his second begin, I’d count on to see one thing that appears common towards the Saints at that time.
Cleveland’s protection has performed higher for the reason that offense began to stand up to hurry, and as soon as once more, this unit will probably be wholesome proper out of the gate. The line of defense has an enormous benefit over the Saints offensive line. That strain will result in Derek Carr turnovers.
I just like the Browns to cowl and win.
PICK: Browns (+1) will lose by lower than 1 level or win outright
Would an undefeated season be unhealthy for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs?
Chiefs @ Invoices (4:25 p.m., CBS)
The predictions did it once more: they made Patrick Mahomes and his Chiefs the underdogs.
With that, the books gave the Chiefs a bit further motivation for this weekend.
Mahomes has been the underdog 14 instances. He received 11 of these video games and lined twelve of them. I do not guess solely based mostly on tendencies, however after I can clarify the development, I really feel extra snug utilizing it as a part of my handicap.
The easiest rationalization – the one I take advantage of typically – is that the Chiefs care extra about video games towards higher groups. Against higher groups, they might be underdogs; towards the Broncos at residence, they aren’t.
Kansas City could not care much less about groups just like the Broncos and Falcons, which is obvious when the Chiefs play as heavy favorites. They actually care about beating groups just like the Ravens, 49ers and Bills.
We’ll see their finest towards Buffalo on Sunday.
The Bills will probably be with out receiver Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper continues to be questionable. If you’re down the highest two receiving targets towards KC, will probably be troublesome to maneuver the ball. The Chiefs protection ranks second within the NFL in speeding yards per try, which makes opposing offenses one-dimensional. They can rush the passer and produce their unique pressures.
Of course, whenever you face Josh Allen, not all of those sport plans work as a result of Allen is superior. And he can beat the Chiefs together with his legs. But the Chiefs solely want a number of pressures to return residence and management the Bills’ offense.
I just like the Chiefs to cowl.
PICK: Chiefs (+2.5) will lose by lower than 2.5 factors or win outright
Herd hierarchy: Cardinals fly, Chargers return to Colin’s Top 10 heading into Week 11
Bengal @ Charger (8:20 p.m., NBC)
The Bengals have 4 wins this season. They beat the Raiders, Browns, Giants and Panthers. There are 9 mixed wins between these 4 groups.
Cincinnati has six losses and all six losses are towards groups with profitable information. While it isn’t so simple as “Bengals beat unhealthy groups however all the time lose to good groups,” it is a good start line for discussing this sport.
Cincy has an important offense however a horrible protection. This is why groups that may transfer the ball – through working or passing – and maintain the soccer are scoring a whole lot of factors on the Bengals. Even although the Chargers haven’t got a single receiver who would begin for the Bengals, this offense has taken off currently.
LA ranks twelfth in offensive DVOA behind Herbert and his speeding assault. The Bengals are twenty seventh in defensive DVOA and twenty sixth in factors allowed per sport.
I believe the Chargers can transfer the ball on Cincinnati.
As beforehand talked about, the Bengals offense is incredible and if their document was 8-2, Joe Burrow could be an MVP candidate. But this Chargers protection is likely to be the perfect unit within the NFL that nobody is speaking about. He is first within the NFL in factors allowed per sport with out having many stars. It works effectively collectively and I believe he’ll present the correct match for the Bengals offensive line.
LA limits explosive performs, which will probably be key in stopping the Bengals’ passing sport.
Charger to cowl.
PICK: Chargers (-1.5) win by greater than 1.5 factors
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper deal with for the University of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.
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