Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Bookmakers will let you know that NFL Week 18 odds are among the many most troublesome to calibrate. This is as a result of in lots of video games there are groups with very completely different levels of motivation.
But that is not the case for the Minnesota Vikings towards the Detroit Lions.
All NFC marbles are in play, with a No. 1 seed. 1 up for grabs Sunday evening in Motor City.
“We anticipate this to be one of many highest betting video games of the yr. It’s one thing we wish to see at this level. It’s the final recreation of the common season and it is a actually aggressive recreation,” stated the pinnacle of buying and selling soccer membership from Caesars Sports. Joey Feazel stated.
Oddsmakers and skilled bettors present their insights on Vikings vs. Lions, together with a key matchup on FOX between the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys, as we dive into NFL Week 18 betting nuggets.
Sunday evening showdown
As famous all through the season, the Lions will not be solely among the many greatest groups on the sphere but in addition among the many greatest for bettors. Detroit is 14-2 total (SU) and 11-4-1 towards the unfold (ATS).
In reality, the Lions have been an ideal wager since mid-November 2022, going 36-10 SU/34-11-1 ATS of their final 46 video games. So it is no shock to see the Lions as 3-point house favorites for Sunday’s kickoff at 8:20 pm ET.
What’s stunning: Underdog Minnesota, which mirrors Detroit at 14-2 SU/11-4-1 ATS, is getting bettors’ consideration because the weekend approaches.
“We’re seeing a variety of Vikings motion up so far,” Feazel stated. “This can also be a really excessive whole of 56, one of many highest totals of the yr. But they’re nonetheless betting on the Over. This must be a really aggressive recreation.”
Can the Commanders clinch a key playoff place towards the Cowboys?
The NFL rocks on FOX
Commanders vs. Cowboys kickoff Sunday at 1pm ET on FOX. Washington (11-5 SU/10-5-1 ATS) has already secured an NFC Wild Card bid. But Jayden Daniels & Co. needs to maintain the No. 1 seed. 6.
A fall to No. 7 would imply a visit to Philadelphia on Super Wild Card Weekend. Bettors are taking part in on this entrance to this point at Caesars.
“There’s much more Commanders cash coming in,” Feazel stated, noting that Washington is favored by as a lot as 6.5 factors, after being at -3. “The motion on Commanders displays that transfer.”
Dallas (7-9 SU and ATS) is coming off a disappointing and injury-plagued season.
“But one factor to notice is the Cowboys have not given up. They’re making an attempt to spoiler a division rival,” Feazel stated.
Nick’s Week 18 Levels: The Detroit Lions = Steve Nash’s Phoenix Suns
Sharp aspect of the NFL
Professional bettor Randy McKay acknowledges the potential pitfalls of betting on NFL Week 18 odds. But he is concerned in three video games, together with Saturday evening’s Bengals-Steelers recreation.
McKay is taking part in Cincinnati as a 1.5-point highway favourite.
“I favored the Bengals within the first recreation, a 44-38 loss,” McKay stated, alluding to Cincy’s Week 13 setback as a 3-point house favourite towards Pittsburgh. “I really feel just like the Bengals will bounce again right here, towards a declining Steelers staff that might relaxation some starters.”
McKay can also be on the Chiefs-Broncos matchup Sunday, with a few choices: a parlay of Kansas City +10.5 and Under 40 level totals, if allowed; or two consecutive bets, one on the Chiefs +10.5 and the opposite on the Under 40s.
“There was an overreaction right here, with Kansas City taking part in as a reserve,” McKay stated, alluding to Patrick Mahomes and others sitting out. “It’s nonetheless a rivalry recreation and the climate may very well be windy.”
Finally, McKay is current within the remaining recreation of the common season, Vikings vs. Lions, bringing Minnesota +3.
“The Rodney Dangerfields nonetheless get no respect. This is just about the identical scenario as when Green Bay went to Detroit 4 weeks in the past and lined up,” McKay stated, pointing to the Packers going into the sport as underdogs. 3.5 factors in a 34-31 loss. “Minnesota had the lead (late) within the first recreation, when Detroit had all fingers within the recreation. Now, Minnesota is forward, with fewer accidents.”
In Week 7, Minnesota was a 1-point house favourite towards Detroit and misplaced 31-29 on a last-second discipline purpose.
Matching mile excessive
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos is one other key matchup within the NFL Week 18 odds, not less than for one staff.
Denver (9-7 SU/11-5 ATS) finishes the AFC’s newest wild card wager with a win. Kansas City (15-1 SU/8-8 ATS) has already locked up the No. 1 seed. 1 to attend this Sunday assembly at 4:25pm ET.
The Chiefs are resting Mahomes, amongst others, with Carson Wentz beginning at quarterback. Not surprisingly, that led to Caesars opening the Broncos at -8 (-115), and the unfold went as excessive as -11 on Tuesday.
Thursday night in Denver it’s -10.5.
“This is the Broncos’ final hurrah. Win they usually’re within the nook,” Feazel stated. “But that is the NFL. We noticed final week that the Giants had nothing to play for and will have simply tanked. Then they beat the Colts.
“Backups do not quit both.”
And bettors do not assume Wentz & Co. will simply face off towards a division rival.
“We’re seeing a variety of Chiefs moneylines. You by no means see the Chiefs at +430,” Feazel stated of KC’s odds of getting the underside line, on which a $100 wager would have netted $430 (whole win $530). “We’re additionally seeing bets on the Chiefs. The line is inflated on function. It’s a B staff towards a Broncos staff that wants it.
“But Carson Wentz isn’t any Zach Wilson. Wentz is a QB who has had success and is aware of find out how to play the sport. I would not rely the Chiefs out by any means.”
Has Patrick Mahomes been snubbed from the Pro Bowl?
Saturday evening at Steel City
The Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers even have so much on the road in Saturday’s kickoff at 8 PM ET. The Bengals are clinging to very slim playoff hopes. The Steelers have already entered the postseason, however on the very least they need to safe an advantageous wild card.
“It’s one other vital recreation, the place each groups want a win,” Feazel stated. “The Steelers want the win as a result of the No. 5 seed is a coveted seed. You need to play No. 4 seed Houston, versus the Ravens.”
The level differential is shifting in direction of the Steelers, opening at Bengals -3 and sitting at Bengals -1.5 (-115) on Thursday evening. But the motion goes in direction of the favourite.
“We’re seeing much more cash from the Bengals,” Feazel stated.
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting business. He lives in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys taking part in golf in 110-degree warmth. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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