Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
I do know you’ve got heard it 1,000,000 occasions at this level, however NFL Week 18 will be very tough to navigate from a betting perspective.
Teams which have already locked down playoff spots are probably sitting out their starters, after which there are some groups which are simply making an attempt to get by the tip of the season earlier than the franchise goes into full rebuild mode.
Anyway, I discovered some factors that I feel are value betting on. Check out my greatest bets for the ultimate weekend of the common season.
(All occasions ET)
SATURDAY JAN. 4
Brown @ Crows (4:30 p.m., ESPN)
Going into Week 18, you will see folks within the betting house itemizing gamers who’re due efficiency bonuses for statistical and taking part in time milestones. It is silly to blindly wager on them as a result of the movement of matches, the quantity of motion they’ve on match day and the precise fixtures may all play a task in reaching such incentives.
Additionally, it’s uncommon for the offensive coordinator to map out a sport plan for a participant to achieve that milestone. I’ve by no means been in a huddle or huddle the place the quarterback stated, “Let’s make sure that the ball goes right here.” So, as soon as once more, do not blindly wager on them. They should be affordable to acquire.
However, I’ll heed colleague Sam Panayotovich’s suggestion to get Derrick Henry to attain a landing anytime quickly, as talked about on the “Bear Bets Podcast.” Henry wants yet one more landing to safe a $500,000 bonus. This is attainable and simply achieved.
The Ravens will play a big sport on Saturday. With a win towards the Browns, they safe the AFC North crown. The Browns will be the worst crew within the NFL and when the Ravens get near the tip zone, Henry may have an opportunity to attain. I do know the worth is perhaps excessive for some, however I agree with the -230 for one thing I imagine will occur.
PICK: Derrick Henry (-230) Anytime landing scorer
Flock Hierarchy: Leaders sit on the prime
SUNDAY JAN. 5
Vikings @ Lions (8:20 p.m., NBC)
The Lions protection is actually beat up. He merely can’t defend himself with coherence.
Detroit misplaced almost a complete protection to accidents. He might get his center linebacker again this weekend, however that single participant alone is not sufficient to assist sluggish the Vikings.
The Lions have allowed 34 factors to the 49ers, 17 factors to the lowly Bears, 48 to the Bills and 31 to the Packers within the final month. Minnesota’s offense is ranked simply 14th in DVOA, however ranks ninth in offensive factors per sport. If you take away the Vikings’ horrible offensive stretch over three video games in the midst of the season, they’d be averaging near 30 factors per sport. Detroit allowed 29 to the Vikings earlier within the season, when the crew was more healthy on protection.
Finally, the Vikings may have the mentality of getting to attain a landing on each drive, and that is as a result of the Lions’ offense will be potent and opponents really feel pressured to maintain up.
PICK: The Vikings (+3) will lose by lower than 3 factors or win outright
Eagles will sit Saquon Barkley in Week 18, 101 yards shy of the all-time speeding report
Seahawks, Buccaneers, Broncos Parlay
It’s almost inconceivable to search out traces and totals value betting on this weekend as a result of greater than half of the video games will really feel preseason.
There are groups that relaxation starters which are nonetheless favored over the worst groups within the NFL. Some groups might play starters for some time or till they know their playoff candidacy is safe. So I’ve discovered it is best to wager on the groups you recognize you want or wish to win.
Before I clarify my alternatives right here, I would like to debate the idea of spoiler squads.
As the season ends and matchups between potential playoff groups and their non-playoff opponents are mentioned, we’ll hear this concept of spoiler groups. These are unhealthy groups that attempt to damage a possible playoff crew’s season by beating them.
It’s at all times value declaring when this occurs. And that often occurs with a younger, hungry crew that does not know any higher. The 2022 Lions going to Green Bay to beat the Packers serves for example.
Now that we’re on the identical web page, here is my pitch.
Tampa Bay is a two-touchdown favourite for a New Orleans Saints crew that’s primarily operating out the clock till it hires a brand new coach and remakes the roster. The Bucs can safe the NFC South division with a win at house. And they’ll win (I feel they’ll most likely cowl too, however I’m not going to place 14 factors on this crew).
The Denver Broncos must win Sunday to achieve the postseason and are dealing with the Kansas City Chiefs preseason crew. The Chiefs will subject their greatest gamers and Carson Wentz will begin at quarterback. There are additionally stories that the third-string quarterback has performed some operating. If you recall, the Broncos performed the Chiefs with their starters within the lineup and misplaced after a game-winning subject objective try was blocked.
They will win this time.
The Seattle Seahawks have been eradicated from the postseason however will wish to win on Sunday. A win provides them 10 factors for the season, which is kind of an achievement for first-year coach Mike McDonald. Also value noting: QB Geno Smith receives a $2 million bonus for successful 10 video games in a season. The Rams have already introduced that they won’t play quarterback Matthew Stafford, which implies the opposite starters may even not play.
PICK: Seahawks, Buccaneers, Broncos (-130) Three-legged Moneyline Parlay
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper deal with for the University of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.
Want nice tales delivered straight to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports accountand observe leagues, groups and gamers to obtain a personalised publication each day!
Get extra from the National Football League Follow your favorites to get info on video games, information and extra
