Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
NFL Wild Card weekend is right here and I believe we’re in for some actually thrilling soccer.
There are a number of video games I’m maintaining a tally of. In two of those video games, I’m betting on the prop market, after which within the final one, I’m taking a look at a halftime unfold.
Check out my picks and predictions for the primary weekend of the NFL playoffs.
(All instances ET)
SATURDAY JAN. 11
Steelers @ Crows (8 p.m., Prime Video)
The Steelers are enjoying the worst soccer of any playoff crew. They have misplaced 4 straight video games, together with three losses to 3 playoff groups and a two-point loss to the Bengal final weekend. They have not scored greater than 17 factors in any of these 4 losses.
The quarterback Russell Wilson has regressed, and George Pickens It’s a no-show. The working recreation is gone and the offense is simply boring. Pittsburgh’s protection remains to be good, nevertheless it in the end falls aside in opposition to these groups who can frequently ship out firepower whereas the Steelers’ offense falters.
The Ravens ought to deal with enterprise on this recreation. They are enjoying excellent soccer and really feel like they’re Super Bowl favorites. However, their lack of postseason success in comparison with their common season success offers me pause to guess on them to cowl this recreation.
I could make a case – a small case – the place this black and blue determination recreation is three factors because it usually is. So nothing apart, however I’ve two props for you.
Russell Wilson Over/Under 225.5 passing yards
In the final 5 video games, Wilson has not thrown for greater than 217 yards and that features a matchup in opposition to the Ravens crew. And the wonderful factor about his yardage in that recreation is that almost all of his yards got here within the first half. On the ultimate three drives, when the Steelers had been making an attempt to return again, Wilson threw a pick-six and the offense gained solely 29 yards.
With Pickens seemingly disappearing from the offense, the Steelers’ weapons are restricted in opposition to a great Ravens go protection. Pittsburgh can even try and run the soccer early within the recreation to forestall the offense from working by way of Wilson.
Additionally, getting some first downs on the bottom would theoretically restrict the variety of go makes an attempt for Wilson.
SELECTION: Russell Wilson Under 225.5 passing yards
Jaylen Warren Over/beneath 20.5 receiving yards
The Steelers began utilizing Warren extra as their major over the past month after which final weekend they stopped. He went from consecutive video games with six receiving targets to only one in opposition to the Bengals.
They should use Warren within the passing recreation in opposition to the Ravens. The display play and third-down completions will put Warren over 20.5 yards, which he has scored in six of his final 9 video games.
PICK: Jaylen Warren Over 20.5 receiving yards
NFL Wild Card Super Six: Which QB may have essentially the most passing yards?
SUNDAY JAN. 12
Broncos @ Invoices (1 p.m., CBS, Paramount+)
This is an empty recreation for the Denver Broncos. By any means mandatory, they should win this recreation, even when they’re nearly 10 level underdogs.
When I take into consideration what this implies for the Broncos’ offense, I take into consideration the quarterback BoNix utilizing your legs by way of designed runs and climbing in opposition to stress. Nix has 92 carries this season and 14 within the final two weeks. Having a quarterback who can transfer like him offers the offense an enormous benefit.
Quarterback runs are likely to work as a result of the protection has bother accounting for the quarterback of their scheme. They work higher on third down and within the crimson zone.
The Broncos want to make use of them to assist him rating on Sunday.
Finally, if the sport will get out of hand, or will get out of hand, I may see Nix wanting to make use of his legs to climb when nobody is open. Get meters as quickly as attainable.
PICK: Bo Nix Over 5.5 rush makes an attempt
Can Jayden Daniels and the Commanders upset the Buccaneers?
Commanders @ Buccaneers (8 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
I like Tampa Bay to get off to a quick begin Sunday evening in opposition to the Commanders.
The Buccaneers performed poorly in opposition to New Orleans to safe a spot within the playoffs. They had been tight and their protection was horrible within the first half. For them it was equal to a playoff recreation. They wanted to win to get in.
Now that it is throughout, I count on this veteran crew to settle in on Sunday evening.
Tampa Bay ranked first within the NFL common season in factors on opening drives. He has 11 scoring drives, together with eight touchdowns.
Washington had a beautiful season, however it is a robust time for any crew with a rookie quarterback. Rookie quarterbacks making their first begin on the street do not win many of those video games and infrequently do not play as much as their requirements. There are butterflies, nerves and pleasure.
I do not count on Washington to deal with these feelings properly and it’ll have an early impression on the commanders’ play. If they calm down, this I may be a recreation. But I guess that will not occur anytime quickly.
PICK: Tampa Bay -2.5 first half
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 completely different groups. He began at proper deal with for the University of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.
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