Geoff Schwartz
Fox Sports Betting Analyst
The NFL MVP has been reserved for gamers in two buckets: a quarterback whose group is the primary or second seed within the playoff band or a runing again that has had a historic season when there is no such thing as a quarterback worthy of MVP.
This prize additionally tends to be much less on worth and extra on the sector recreation, what I’d say is what the award must be.
Finally, after they select the gamers to win this prize, you must have in mind politics. Did the voters of final season need Lamar Jackson to win a 3rd MVP when Josh Allen was an accessible choice?
All this issues right here.
With this, listed here are my greatest bets for NFL MVP on the finish of the following season.
Jalen hurts
Hurts is now an excellent Bowl champion and no matter folks have had on the quarterback will disappear.
He overcome Patrick Mahomes each within the appearances of the Super Bowl that his Eagles group received the Super Bowl Lix in such a convincing method that the award voters will consider the injuries in a extra constructive gentle than earlier than.
This Philly group might be among the best NFC seeds once more and, with Hurts’ hasty manufacturing, is ready to produce extra landing and total development websites. Remember, Hurts was the neck and neck with Mahomes in 2022 for the MVP earlier than an damage took away his final video games of the season.
For his place within the NFL and the success that his group can have, Hurts is a unbelievable worth at +1700.
Choose: Jalen Hurt (+1700) to win 2025-26 mvp
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Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes’ passage numbers continued to development down. He launched 5,250 Yard in 2022 when he received the MVP. In 2023, Mahomes launched 4,183 yard. Last season, he was lower than 4,000.
These numbers are a by -product of two associated issues.
The first is that the defenses are taking part in to cowl the very best space and Mahomes is simply taking what the protection offers him. His aerial development websites for try and completion have been low – a few of the lowest of the NFL – however the offense of the chiefs was nonetheless purposeful.
The second is the dearth of weapons to the receiver for the clothes within the final two seasons. Rashee Rice was enrolled in 2023, he performed effectively within the publish -station and emerged in 2024 as the principle receiver. He had 29 targets and 24 catches earlier than a knee damage in week 4 ended his season. The Chiefs turned to a different debutant to the Xavier World receiver, since Rice and Hollywood Brown have been each in wounded reserve. It was a tough season for Mahomes to maneuver the ball into the air, till Brown returned to coaching and worthy improved.
Worldthy will enter his second season as a respectable risk. Rice will return from the damage, even when it will likely be suspended for part of the season. Travis Kelce appears to have returned. Chiefs will add extra receivers within the draft and the free company, in addition to a race again to assist in the display recreation.
In the top, I prefer to guess on Mahomes when he feels as if he had one thing to show. After the lack of the Super Bowl, this offense of Chiefs must change a bit and Mahomes might be motivated to have a unique aim for the following season.
Choose: Patrick Mahomes (+750) to win 2025-26 mvp
Mahomes Mountain: 2025 way-too-early version
Mvp lengthy blows
Let’s see all of the posts of social media sportsbook accounts between in the present day and the beginning of the season.
“Someone has guess $ 100 on the X participant at +9000 to win the MVP”, is what they may say.
And I’m right here to let you know that it’s effective laughing at that guess as a result of these lengthy -term MVP choices don’t win. You are throwing your cash away. I’m not within the perceived worth.
The worth is shopping for a ticket on a participant who has the chance to win. That’s all.
Your record ought to embrace solely one of the best quarterback within the championship in one of the best groups. Period.
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for Fox Sports. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 completely different groups. He began to counter the best for the University of Oregon for 3 seasons and was an all-Pac-12 collection of the second group in his final 12 months. Follow it on Twitter @Geoffschwartz.
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