Joel Klatt
Chief faculty soccer analyst
November is right here, which implies we’ve got one other weekend of video games till the College Football Playoff committee releases its first weekly rankings on Tuesday. The first rating reveal all the time offers us a very good image of how the committee views every workforce and what their respective paths are to attaining the CFP.
Of course this yr is completely different. This yr is the primary 12-team playoff season. Typically, there are solely about 12 groups with an opportunity of reaching the CFP this time of yr throughout the four-team format. This yr I consider there are 27 applications that also have a path. If we nonetheless had the four-team area, I believe there would have solely been 14 groups that also had a authentic probability of constructing it. So I believe that is nice for the game.
Before we evaluation the 27 groups that also have a authentic shot on the CFP, let’s check out my projected area of 12 groups.
Hello to the primary spherical
1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Clemson
4. BYU
I’ve Oregon defeating Ohio State within the Big Ten title recreation, Georgia defeating Texas within the SEC championship recreation, Clemson beating Miami (Fla.) within the ACC championship recreation and BYU beating Kansas State for the Big 12 title. In this prediction, Oregon can be undefeated, which might give them an edge over Georgia. I nonetheless consider in Clemson, and I’m actually beginning to consider in BYU, which jogs my memory of the TCU workforce that made it to the nationwide championship recreation in 2022.
First spherical clashes
No. 5 Ohio State towards the no. 12 Boise State
No. 6 Texas towards the no. 11 Miami (Florida)
No. 7 Pen State towards quantity 10 Alabama
No. 8 Our Lady towards the no. 9 Tennessee
Outgoing first workforce: Indiana
If Ohio State makes it to the Big Ten championship recreation, which means they are going to probably defeat Penn State or Indiana. That can be sufficient to present the Buckeyes the No. 1 seed. 5, particularly in the event that they lose one other shut recreation to Oregon.
Then, Texas would slide to No. 6 as a result of lack of these high quality wins. Texas would possibly beat Texas A&M in College Station, however I truly misplaced Texas A&M to South Carolina this weekend. So, a street win towards the Aggies would lose some luster for the Longhorns on this state of affairs.
I believe Penn State and Notre Dame will in all probability be 11-1. If the Nittany Lions misplaced this weekend and gained, I consider they might have executed sufficient to get into the No. 7 seed. So, Notre Dame would get the No. 1 seed. 8, getting knocked down attributable to its loss to Northern Illinois.
I consider Tennessee and Alabama will end the yr at 10-2. If Alabama will get to 10-2, which means they might have wins over Georgia and LSU. But Tennessee would rank above Alabama on this state of affairs as a result of Tennessee defeated Alabama.
That leaves one other at-large supply, which I believe would fall to Miami and Indiana on this state of affairs. The Hurricanes would probably be 12-1, whereas the Hoosiers it might in all probability be 11-1. Both the energy of the applications will probably be rightly examined. Miami would get a bonus as a result of they’ve the additional win, and I believe having a Heisman Trophy contender in quarterback Cam Ward may assist right here. I additionally need to be truthful and never penalize a workforce that misplaced the convention championship recreation.
Texas and Ohio State in November’s 12-team CFP bracket by Joel Klatt
Now let’s check out which 27 groups are nonetheless alive within the playoff hunt, convention by convention.
SEC (7)
Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and Texas A&M
Each of those three groups may in all probability lose yet another recreation within the common season and nonetheless get the CFP primarily based on what every workforce has already executed this season. However, Texas A&M has a warning. It should win its subsequent three video games (at South Carolina, towards New Mexico State, at Auburn) earlier than going through Texas within the common season finale. Even although Notre Dame was a non-conference loss, the Fighting Irish are nonetheless persistent and the Aggies ought to need to keep away from being within the bubble subsequent to them. If each Texas A&M and Notre Dame are 10-2 on the finish of the season, Notre Dame has the head-to-head victory in its pocket. So, Texas A&M has to win these three video games. If he does, he may make it to the SEC championship recreation, whatever the final result of the sport towards Texas.
Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed (10) changed Conner Weigman within the second half of its win towards LSU, scoring three touchdowns within the win. (Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Images)
Alabama, Old girl and LSU
I believe it is going to be troublesome for a workforce that has suffered three defeats to succeed in the CFP. So, every of those three groups must win to nonetheless have an opportunity of constructing it. That means the Alabama-LSU recreation on Nov. 6 is unofficially the primary playoff recreation of the yr. It additionally means Ole Miss ha to beat Georgia.
Sorry, Missouri. Even should you went 10-2, you’d in all probability have zero wins within the rankings and your solely video games towards ranked groups had been each losses.
Big ten (5)
Oregon
At 8-0, the Ducks arguably have the cleanest path to the CFP of any workforce within the nation. I do not see them falling out of one of many Big Ten championship recreation slots, not to mention the 12-team playoffs.
Pen State
The Nittany Lions ought to do it in the event that they go 11-1. We maintain them in excessive esteem and I believe the committee will too. But in the event that they lose two video games in November, they could possibly be one of many 10-2 groups that I believe will miss the postseason as a result of they might be lacking a marquee win, assuming they lose to Ohio State on this state of affairs. Just win this weekend and also you’re good, Penn State.
Ohio State vs Penn State: Which coach will get this win?
Indiana
The Hoosiers are the workforce I’m most inquisitive about figuring out the committee’s ideas on. Indiana must be ranked increased than the opposite undefeated Miami as they’ve been dominant in each recreation. But if the committee’s ideas on Indiana are something just like the AP ballot, the Hoosiers will should be at the very least 11-1 to make the sector.
Ohio State
If the Buckeyes deal with enterprise within the video games they need to win (vs. Purdue, at Northwestern, vs. Michigan), I believe they only have to win at the very least one of many video games towards Penn State and Indiana. Ohio State’s model is large enough that I can say it’s completely within the CFP at 10-2. Obviously, Ohio State would quite win all these video games and play for the Big Ten title.
Ohio State and Penn State are nonetheless alive for a spot within the College Football Playoff
Michigan
This is the one workforce I see going 9-3 and reaching the CFP. Before you roll your eyes, the committee ought to consider how you’ll play on the finish of the yr. We noticed how Michigan struggled offensively to open the yr, but when they win, they might get wins over Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State. I do not see that taking place, however with how good Michigan’s protection could be when wholesome, the door is at the very least open.
Large 12 (4)
BYU e Iowa State
The path for the Cougars and Cyclones is fairly apparent: Keep successful and you may in all probability get in. At first I wasn’t positive if the Big 12 would obtain two CFP bids. But if each groups made it to the convention title recreation and had been 12-0, the loser of that recreation can be 12-1. They would have two wins over groups on the bubble. But I believe that is the one strategy to get two groups from the Big 12.
Kansas State and Colorado
The Wildcats and Buffaloes probably will not make it to the CFP with out successful the convention title recreation. Kansas State has a safer path between the 2 groups as a result of it has one recreation remaining towards Iowa State. Colorado will want Kansas State to lose to Iowa State and BYU to stumble in some unspecified time in the future whereas successful a tiebreaker to succeed in the Big 12 championship recreation.
Joel Klatt reveals why Colorado poses a critical risk to dominate the Big 12
ACC (4)
Miami (Florida) and Clemson
Similar to the Big 12, there’s in all probability just one manner for the ACC to get two playoff bids. If Clemson gave Miami its solely common season loss within the convention title recreation, I may see each groups going to the CFP, however I do not suppose Miami can faucet out within the common season and turn into an general workforce. . If Clemson ran the standings within the common season, I may see the Tigers making the postseason as an 11-2 workforce general.
Miami QB Cam Ward is among the many favorites to win the Heisman as he’s second within the nation in passing yards and touchdowns. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Getty Images)
Pitt
The path for Pitt is a bit of riskier. Pitt has to beat SMU on Saturday and Clemson on Nov. 16. The Panthers have three wins by 4 factors or much less. Quarterback Eli Holstein is banged up. So, I do not see that taking place for the Panthers, however there’s a path.
SMU
This is one other workforce that should handle the standings to get in, particularly since SMU’s solely loss was to BYU.
Independent (1)
Our Lady
Notre Dame may have good momentum within the playoff image because of its win over Texas A&M. I believe the Fighting Irish may nonetheless be within the combine even when they lose one other recreation this season due to it.
Group of 5 (6)
Boise State
If Boise State wins the Mountain West, I believe they would be the consultant of the Group of 5. It’s that straightforward.
Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty leads the nation in dashing yards and is among the many favorites to win the Heisman. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)
Army
Army might be subsequent in line after Boise State, contemplating how they’ve performed like an undefeated workforce. If it runs the desk and Boise State loses, Army is prone to get that spot within the Group of 5.
UNLV
If there’s some chaos within the AAC and UNLV defeats Boise State within the Mountain West championship recreation, the Rebels in all probability have a path to securing the Group of 5 spot. UNLV obtained some ‘ of appreciation from the AP Top 25 ballot at some factors this season.
Marina, Tulane, Memphis
For certainly one of these three to make it, you would wish the reverse UNLV state of affairs. If Navy, Tulane or Memphis leads the league to win the AAC and Boise State would not win the Mountain West, there’s a path for certainly one of these groups.
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