The Chiefs, as you will have heard, are the NFL’s final undefeated workforce, now 8-0 and almost midway to the elusive excellent common season.
The 1972 Dolphins, the one workforce to finish a complete season undefeated, opened that yr with a victory in opposition to the Chiefs, having overwhelmed them within the playoffs the earlier season. So any Chiefs executed to perfection is in the end a slow-burn revenge mission, and a tough one at that.
Do the Chiefs actually wish to keep excellent? Kansas City had two groups open 9-0 and each misplaced their tenth sport. The 2003 Chiefs completed 13-3 and misplaced of their first playoff sport; the 2013 Chiefs misplaced 5 of seven to complete 11-5 and misplaced within the wild-card spherical.
So we’re right here to remind you the way terribly unlikely an ideal season shall be, regardless of how good the Chiefs is likely to be. They will be the most effective workforce within the NFL and win an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl and nonetheless fall in need of perfection. There’s no disgrace on this. Here are some vulnerabilities to be careful for, associated weaknesses that may very well be uncovered in a doable loss to destroy that 20-0 bid.
Turnover margin
The Chiefs usually are not turnover workforce. They have compelled precisely eight takeaways in eight video games, and when it comes to turnover margin, they rank twenty fourth this season at -4. This is not a brand new improvement: Kansas City gained a Super Bowl final yr regardless of ending twenty eighth in turnover margin, and did the identical in 2022 by rating twenty second in turnover margin. Last yr’s champions compelled 17 takeaways in 17 common season video games.
They’re adequate that they needn’t win off turnovers. Since Patrick Mahomes took over because the starter in 2018, they’re 37-2 after they merely pressure extra turnovers than they commit. Also useless on turnovers? They are 24-6, profitable 80% of the time. Even when they’re down -1, like in Monday’s additional time win in opposition to the Bucs, they’re 17-9, profitable virtually two of 3 times.
But get them to minus-2 and it is a dialog you’ll be able to have. When the Chiefs are minus-2 or worse beneath Mahomes, they’re 5-7. That’s truly actually good beneath the circumstances, as NFL groups which are minus-2 or worse are 9-41 this yr, profitable simply 18% of the time.
Why we’re speaking about it: The Chiefs’ remaining schedule contains three of the most effective groups within the NFL when it comes to turnover margin. In two weeks they may face the Bills, tied for plus-11 in turnovers, and later they may face the Chargers (plus-9) and Steelers (plus-10). All three lead their respective divisions proper now, and the online turnover differential between the Chiefs and people groups is sufficient to put these uncommon minus-2 eventualities into play.
Mahomes’ interceptions have elevated this yr, sufficient to place him tied for the league lead with 9 earlier than final weekend. It’s uncommon for him to have a couple of in a sport — it is occurred simply 14 instances in his seven-year profession, however the Chiefs are simply 8-6 in these video games. So if a workforce can knock him out a few instances, there’s an opportunity.
Keep them beneath 20 factors
Much has been written about how the Chiefs have gained a lot with their protection this yr. Before Monday night time, that they had gained 13 straight video games and scored 28 factors or fewer in all 13 video games, the one such streak in NFL historical past. They scored 30 factors on Monday, however wanted additional time to take action.
All of that is to say that these Chiefs haven’t been a dominant workforce offensively the final two years. At peak scoring, from the beginning of 2020 via Week 8 of 2022, Kansas City scored 40 or extra factors 11 instances in 46 video games, however has since scored 40 or extra solely as soon as in its final 42 video games.
“Hey, make them rating much less” is not an progressive technique, however the important thing quantity to intention for is 20 factors or much less. When the Chiefs scored 20 or fewer final yr, they had been simply 4-6. Only one workforce has held them beneath 20 this yr, and that is the Chargers, who’ve the No. 1 protection within the NFL and misplaced 17-10 of their first assembly.
The Chiefs’ remaining schedule contains 4 video games in opposition to the NFL’s three greatest defenses: a rematch with the Chargers, a Week 17 showdown with the Steelers and two in opposition to the Broncos, this week and the season finale. That sport in Buffalo subsequent weekend — a rematch of final yr’s playoff showdown — would additionally pit Kansas City in opposition to the league’s No. 8 protection.
Concerns in regards to the return of kick-off
The Bucs’ Bucky Irving made a 46-yard kickoff return Monday night time, the second longest the Chiefs have allowed within the final three seasons. Special groups coordinator Dave Toub is among the greatest within the league, and Kansas City has an 80 % touchback charge beneath Harrison Butker, so the workforce’s opponents have returned simply 9 kickoffs all season.
But on these returns, they common 30 yards per return, the eighth-highest common within the league. Rashid Shaheed of the Saints had a 38-yard return in opposition to the Chiefs and Isaac Guerendo of the 49ers had a 35-yard return. The total league has given up simply three kickoff return touchdowns all season, and Kansas City hasn’t allowed one since 2020, however it’s one thing to observe. Keep a watch out for Bills rookie Brandon Codrington in two weeks.
The risk of damage for Mahomes
It’s virtually a cheat to have an undefeated season finish due to a quarterback damage, however Mahomes received a scare early within the fourth quarter Monday night time when he scrambled to his proper, then stopped and threw a landing to Samaje Perine. He was on the sphere with an ankle damage and initially needed to be helped to the sideline earlier than ending the stroll on his personal. In the top he did not waste a second, however the concern was sufficient to trigger the TV to point out backup Carson Wentz throwing him to the sideline.
Mahomes has been remarkably wholesome in his NFL profession, lacking simply two video games in seven seasons as a result of damage – in 2019 with a dislocated kneecap. He missed the common season finals in 2020 and 2023 because the Chiefs had captured every part they might, however in any other case was capable of play each sport.
Could the Chiefs win with Wentz? He is 3-5 as a starter because the begin of 2022 in stints with the Commanders and Rams. The Chiefs cut up the 2 video games Mahomes missed in 2019, and that was with Matt Moore filling in at quarterback. Mahomes’ present ankle damage will not sideline him, however it may restrict his skill to scramble and the elusiveness that permits him to increase performs and improvise like few quarterbacks can.
Greg Auman is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He beforehand spent a decade masking the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and the Athletic. You can comply with him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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