Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The Kansas City Chiefs aren’t usually underdogs. So when it occurs, bettors take discover.
And it is taking place in NFL Week 11 odds.
Kansas City is a 2-point discipline aim away from the Buffalo Bills in Sunday’s matchup. More interesting to the general public betting plenty: Take the Chiefs on the moneyline at +110 for a greater payout, betting on Patrick Mahomes & Co. successful the sport outright.
“How usually are you able to get the Chiefs for extra money? We’re going to see lots of people betting on the Chiefs,” mentioned Joey Feazel, head of soccer buying and selling at Caesars Sports.
Oddsmakers and knowledgeable bettors give us their insights on Chiefs vs. Bills and a handful of different video games as we dive into NFL Week 11 betting nuggets.
Covering the quantity
Kansas City is 9-0 total (SU) and a extra mediocre 5-4 in opposition to the unfold (ATS). The Chiefs barely remained undefeated in Week 10, outscoring Denver 16-14 whereas blocking a discipline aim as time expired. KC was not the house favourite at 7.5 factors and enters this week with an 0-3 ATS slide.
Buffalo (8-2 SU/6-4 ATS) is on a five-game successful streak, together with 4. In Week 10, the Bills beat Indianapolis 30-20 as a 4.5-point favourite.
Caesars opened the Bills with -1.5 and received to -2.5 Sunday night time. But late Wednesday night time, Buffalo was -2 (-105).
“So far, the Chiefs are getting probably the most seed cash, which isn’t any shock,” Feazel mentioned. “They’re 9-0, they do not cowl video games, they do not beat what the market perceives them to be. But they’re nonetheless positively the group to beat.”
Regardless of whether or not Caesars wants the payments, this Sunday kickoff at 4:25 PM ET will see loads of tickets and cash on each side.
“It’s going to be up there. All eyes are on this matchup. I count on this to be a sport with loads of motion,” Feazel mentioned.
The NFL rocks on FOX
FOX has some fascinating video games on Sunday, together with the Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers at 4:05 pm ET. The 49ers opened -7 (-105) at Caesars and fell to -6.5 (-110) Tuesday morning, the place they have been on the finish of the day Wednesday.
San Francisco (5-4 SU/4-5 ATS) is lastly above .500, for the primary time since their Week 1 win over the New York Jets. Seattle (4-5 SU/2-6-1 ATS) is coming off a bye and possibly wanted it, because the Seahawks are 1-5 SU and ATS of their final six video games.
“So far we’re seeing cash from the Seahawks. But I do not count on it to final,” Feazel mentioned. “We’ll have extra money for the 49ers by kickoff. The first time this season, the 49ers actually dominated.”
In Week 6 in Seattle, the Niners took a 16-0 lead within the second quarter, successful 36-24 as 3.5-point favorites.
Can the Buffalo Bills finish the Kansas City Chiefs’ successful streak on this essential matchup?
Sharp facet of the NFL
Professional bettor Randy McKay is coming off a 3-0 week. McKay was in Cincinnati a 6.5-point underdog to Baltimore, and the Bengals suffered a 35-34 loss. He wager +3 on Pittsburgh in Washington, and the Steelers received 28-27, and he wager Denver +8.5 in Kansas City, the place the Broncos misplaced 16-14.
McKay can also be three video games in NFL Week 11 odds. First: Tennessee +6/+6.5 vs. Minnesota.
“It’s back-to-back street video games for Minnesota after the unhealthy win final week,” McKay mentioned, alluding to the Vikings’ 12-7 win in Jacksonville. “I see extra of the identical right here in opposition to a greater protection in Tennessee. The Titans’ improved offensive line can management the ball and restrict possessions on this one.”
McKay can also be at Kansas City +2.5 at Buffalo, noting that the Chiefs are on a 15-game successful streak.
“I’m going with the group that hasn’t misplaced since final Christmas. The line has moved from the choose to +2.5, so there’s worth now,” he mentioned. “I do not like Buffalo’s offensive harm report in a sport that must be one other traditional.”
Tenders Amari Cooper (wrist) and tight finish Dalton Kincaid (knee) are questionable, and Keon Coleman (wrist) is out.
McKay backs up Cincinnati for the second straight week, this time as a 2-point underdog on Sunday night time in opposition to the Los Angeles Chargers.
“The Bengals get further relaxation after Thursday night time’s loopy sport in opposition to Baltimore,” McKay mentioned. “Cincy may get again two offensive starters, (left deal with) Orlando Brown Jr. and huge receiver Tee Higgins. LA is a ball-control offense that might have hassle maintaining with Cincy’s offense.”
McKay additionally famous that he expects the Bengals to be at their finest in Week 11, with a bye coming in Week 12.
Tom Brady’s Week 10 energy rankings
Popular Pittsburgh
Interestingly, at Caesars Sports and different sports activities betting websites throughout the nation, the Pittsburgh Steelers positioned probably the most bets in Week 11 in opposition to the Washington Commanders. And these bettors proved appropriate, because the Steelers, 2-point underdogs, received outright 28-27.
In NFL Week 12 odds, the Steelers opened as 3-point underdogs at dwelling in opposition to the Baltimore Ravens. The line briefly went to Ravens -3.5 Sunday night time and stopped at Ravens -3 (-120) late Wednesday night time.
And Pittsburgh is fashionable once more.
“It’s not stunning to see Steelers cash. It’s the identical case as final week. They’re Pittsburgh right here,” Feazel mentioned.
I like massive bets and I am unable to lie
An essential wager has already been received.
We usually write about betting a little bit to win rather a lot. In this case, a Caesars Sports buyer wager massive to win little.
As in: $240,000 on the Detroit Lions -800 moneyline in opposition to the Jacksonville Jaguars. So, if Detroit – which is favored by 14 factors over the unfold – wins the sport, whatever the remaining margin, that wager wins.
At odds of -800, the revenue can be a comparatively modest $30,000 (whole win $270,000). However, that is an ROI of 12.5%. I’d take this on my 401K any time.
Caesars additionally wager $42,000 on New England Patriots +5 (-105) vs. Los Angeles Rams. If the house underdog Patriots handle to beat this unfold, the bettor earns a whopping $40,000 (whole win $82,000).
These bigger bets might be enjoyable to expertise vicariously, rooting for bettors to beat the ebook. Or root in opposition to the wager, if that is your factor. As to your bets, although, simply keep in mind to maintain them affordable. Don’t wager greater than you may afford to lose.
Enjoy the video games!
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting business. He lives in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys enjoying golf in 110-degree warmth. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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