Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Time, time, time. That’s the theme of NFL Week 12, at the very least on the subject of betting on Thursday night time’s recreation.
And one thing else I believe bettors ought to be careful for is a much less energetic Lions group than we noticed final week. Yes, I do know, they’re taking part in the Colts. But I’ve my causes.
Read on to seek out out my greatest bets for this weekend’s slate.
(All occasions ET)
THURSDAY NOVEMBER 21
Steelers @ Brown (8.15pm, Prime Video)
It’s the time of 12 months when the climate turns into a part of a handicap.
Thursday night time is anticipated to be chilly, wet and windy in Cleveland. So it is price repeating the annual reminder that windy circumstances most affect a quarterback’s capacity to throw the ball.
The forecast requires winds of 17 mph in Cleveland for Thursday night time, and it could seem that, down the river, it is going to be slightly greater within the stadium. This will affect each groups’ capacity to go it on.
The Browns would somewhat not depend on Jameis Winston’s arm to win a recreation, so the bottom recreation will likely be essential to their success. Well, sadly, the Steelers are distinctive in opposition to the run, and if Winston is pressured to go the ball, Cleveland’s offense is not going to achieve success.
On the opposite hand, the Steelers do three issues on offense: run the soccer, transfer quarterback Russell Wilson, or have Wilson throw a patented moonball. It will likely be troublesome to finish the moon balls with the wind being so robust.
So, I like each groups to run the ball, deal with defining the road of scrimmage, and have low totals.
The kicking recreation can be price monitoring. Bad winds may equal a couple of missed area targets.
SELECTION: Under 36.5 factors scored by each groups mixed
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers protection be capable of take them to the Super Bowl?
SUNDAY NOVEMBER 24
Lions @ Colts (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
Standing in entrance of the Detroit Lions freight practice may show painful, however that is the weekend to guess in opposition to them.
The Lions have gained eight video games in a row, and plenty of of these wins have been by double digits. They beat the Jaguars so badly on Sunday you’ll have thought they have been an FCS group paid to play in Georgia.
It’s normally time to put on down a group after profitable a recreation by six touchdowns.
The Colts introduced again Anthony Richardson at quarterback after benching him and sustaining that Joe Flacco could be the quarterback for the remainder of the season. They have been rewarded for giving the ball to the teenager and in return acquired a incredible recreation from Richardson of their win over the Jets.
He was 20 of 30 for 272 yards, plus he used his legs for one more 32 yards and a landing.
There is unquestionably nonetheless some variation in his recreation. You get one thing nice for one thing dangerous, however the good will be so good that it is price a chance.
I fear concerning the Colts’ go protection on this recreation, however I believe the offense can transfer the ball to the Lions, who proceed to undergo accidents on protection.
If the Colts can hold the ball away from the Lions, they need to be capable of cowl this recreation.
PICK: Colts (+7.5) will lose by lower than 7.5 factors or win outright
Giants Bench Daniel Jones for Tommy DeVito
Buccaneers @ Giants (1 p.m., CBS)
The New York Giants have benched quarterback Daniel Jones. Starting as a substitute is Tommy DeVito, a sensation for the Giants final season.
Last 12 months, DeVito was 3-3 and accomplished 64 % of his passes, however averaged simply 122.3 passing yards per recreation. Not precisely setting any passing data. The lore of his play does not match the way in which he really performed.
The Giants’ offensive line is not good, and whereas they’ve a good quantity of expertise, nothing makes them a constantly explosive offense. They have some excellent defensive linemen however rank twenty fifth in defensive DVOA.
In abstract, New York isn’t group and DeVito makes issues worse.
Tampa Bay is out of a much-needed bye after shedding 4 straight video games, the final three with out their high two receivers.
The Buccaneers have performed powerful video games and misplaced shut video games. However, they performed in opposition to the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs and 49ers. The Giants clearly do not examine to these 4 groups, and I believe Tampa Bay will likely be excited to play this weekend.
The Bucs must win to maintain tempo with the Falcons within the NFC South and will likely be thrilled to have Mike Evans again. The Giants are additionally typically horrible at masking the unfold at house.
I like Tampa.
PICK: Buccaneers (-5.5) wins by greater than 5.5 factors
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 completely different groups. He began at proper deal with for the University of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.
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