The silent black and white video from the surveillance digicam of Russian missile attack within the Ukrainian metropolis of Dnipro it was transient however chilling: six huge fireballs tore by means of the darkness and crashed to the bottom at astonishing velocity.
A number of hours after the November twenty first assault on the Russian army facility President Vladimir Putin took the uncommon step of talking on nationwide TV to brag concerning the new hypersonic missile. He warned the West that its subsequent use might be towards Ukraine’s NATO allies who’ve allowed Kiev to make use of their long-range missiles to strike Russia’s inside.
Putin stated the missile was known as “Oreshnik” – Russian for “hazelnut”.
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A take a look at the weapon, the way it matches into Moscow’s battle plan, and what political message Russia desires to ship through the use of it:
What is understood concerning the Oreshnik?
A glad smile appeared on Putin’s face as he described how the Oreshnik reached its goal at 10 instances the velocity of sound, or Mach 10, “like a meteorite”, and claimed that it was resistant to any missile protection system . Ukrainian army officers stated it reached speeds of Mach 11.
General Sergei Karakayev, head of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces, stated the Oreshnik might carry nuclear or typical warheads and had a spread to succeed in any European goal.
The Pentagon stated the Oreshnik is an experimental sort of intermediate-range ballistic missile, or IRBM, based mostly on the Russian RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM. The assault marked the primary time such a weapon had been utilized in a battle.
Intermediate-range missiles can fly between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (310 to three,400 miles). Such weapons have been banned underneath a Soviet-era treaty that Washington and Moscow deserted in 2019.
Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate stated the missile had six warheads, every containing six submunitions. Its payload of independently targetable warheads, like a cluster of hazelnuts rising on a tree, stands out as the inspiration for the missile’s title.
Video of the assault appeared to indicate six warheads surrounded by clouds of plasma raining down in a fiery descent. The six submunitions launched by every warhead have been apparently unarmed however had excessive kinetic power, estimated to offer a harmful power equal to tons of explosives.
Putin stated the weapon is so highly effective that the usage of a number of missiles of this sort – even outfitted with typical warheads – might be as devastating as a nuclear assault. It can destroy underground bunkers “three, 4 or extra flooring down,” he boasted, threatening to make use of it towards the Kiev authorities district.
Ukraine’s Security Service reported this to the Associated Press missile wreckage – charred and mutilated cables and a cell in ash – on the Pivdenmash plant in Dnipro that constructed missiles when Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union. There have been no casualties within the assault and authorities didn’t describe injury to the plant. They stated the missile was launched from the 4th Kapustin Yar missile check vary in Russia’s Astrakhan area on the Caspian Sea.
What different missiles has Russia used?
Russia has used an assortment of missiles to strike Ukraine since its invasion started in February 2022, however none had the vary and energy of Oreshnik.
These embody long-range subsonic cruise missiles carrying round 500 kilograms (1,100 kilos) of explosives, sufficient to inflict vital injury on Ukrainian energy crops and different key infrastructure. The winged, jet-powered cruise missiles have a spread of as much as 2,500 kilometers (1,550 miles), able to reaching all of Ukraine.
Russia has additionally used swarms of cheap, Iranian-designed drones carrying solely about 50 kilograms (110 kilos) of explosives. Slow-flying drones are comparatively simple to intercept, however Russia has used dozens of them at a time to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses and divert consideration from concurrently launched cruise missiles.
For some precedence targets, Russia has used sooner and extra highly effective missiles, together with the ground-launched Iskander short-range ballistic missile with a spread of 500 kilometers (310 miles).
For significantly vital targets, Moscow used the Kinzhal air-launched hypersonic ballistic missile. Its excessive velocity – able to briefly reaching Mach 10 – and skill to maneuver in flight assist it evade air defenses, though Ukraine claims to have shot down some.
Oreshnik is much more troublesome to intercept than Kinzhal. It can deal considerably heavier injury resulting from its a number of high-energy warheads.
What message is Putin sending with the Oreshnik?
Putin described the Oreshnik as a response to the US and UK permitting Ukraine to make use of their long-range weapons to strike Russian territory, a transfer he stated gave “components of a worldwide character ” to the battle.
“We imagine now we have the suitable to make use of our weapons towards the army amenities of nations that permit their weapons for use towards our amenities,” he stated.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Putin’s Security Council, stated Oreshnik might attain targets in Europe inside minutes, inflicting “catastrophic” injury. “Air raid shelters will not prevent,” he posted on his messaging app channel.
Russian state media hyped the Oreshnik, claiming it will take simply 11 minutes to succeed in an air base in Poland and 17 minutes to succeed in NATO headquarters in Brussels. T-shirts with photos of Putin and the Oreshnik appeared, and he was advised at a briefing {that a} couple deliberate to call their daughter after the missile.
Military skilled Mathieu Boulègue of Chatham House in Britain stated that whereas the Oreshnik isn’t a game-changer on the battlefield, “by way of psychological warfare, it really works nice” in serving the Kremlin’s objective of scare the Western public.
The November 21 assault got here two days after Putin signed a revised model of Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which lowered the brink for the usage of nuclear weapons. The doctrine permits for a possible nuclear response by Moscow even to a standard assault on Russia by any nation backed by a nuclear energy.
The use of the Oreshnik was an expression of Moscow’s anger at the usage of Western long-range missiles and a sign to Ukraine and President-elect Donald Trump that Russia would pursue its targets, no matter help for Kiev, stated James J. Townsend, senior fellow on the Center for New American Security.
“This is a really highly effective message that’s being despatched,” Townsend stated. “This exhibits Trump how critical Russia takes what the Biden administration did and the way severely it takes and the way indignant it’s about any such help.”
Putin’s warning about potential assaults on NATO belongings follows calls from Russian hawks for such assaults to power Ukraine’s allies to again down.
Unlike different short-range Russian typical weapons, Oreshnik presents the power to launch a strong typical assault anyplace in Europe, offering the Kremlin with a brand new escalation software with out exploiting its nuclear arsenal. There will likely be no manner of figuring out whether or not Oreshnik carries a nuclear or typical warhead earlier than it hits the goal.
“The enemy should perceive that we’re able to take essentially the most resolute steps and first strike the territory of NATO members with typical weapons,” stated Sergei Karaganov, a senior political guide to the Kremlin. “At the identical time, we’ll warn them that in the event that they reply to that assault in an escalating method, a nuclear strike would come second, and a 3rd wave would goal American bases.”
