NFL groups compete all through the season to ascertain seedings that determine who will get to host playoff video games and who should journey to advance. Essentially, groups battle for 18 weeks to find out who earns the simplest path to the Super Bowl.
And as one other six-game wildcard weekend approaches, the fifth 12 months of the expanded 14-team playoffs, it is an opportunity to have a look at the exhausting numbers and statistical tendencies.
How helpful is house area benefit within the postseason?
The easiest reply over the previous three years is that, a minimum of on the opening weekend of the playoffs, the upper seeds taking part in on their house courtroom have a large benefit, going 14-4 in wild-card video games. Of the 4 opening weekend upsets from the 2021 season, just one – the sixth-seeded 49ers in 2021 – superior past the divisional spherical.
Of course, that is not all the time the case: within the earlier three years, from 2018 to 2020, virtually the alternative was true, with house groups going 4-10 within the wild card rounds.
The NFL’s present playoff mannequin solely rewards the highest group in every convention with a first-round bye — the Chiefs and Lions earned these honors this season — and in three of the 4 years in that mannequin, each heads of collection have superior to play the convention championship on their house area. The exception was a chaotic 2021, when the top-seeded Titans and Packers each misplaced by a area objective within the divisional spherical, sending a 2-seed, two 4-seeds and a 6-seed to the video games of convention championship.
Over the previous 4 years, half of the No. 1 seeds have superior to the Super Bowl, however just one – the 2022 Chiefs – have truly gained, so there’s the expectation of the sudden. The final 4 Super Bowl champions included three groups that weren’t anticipated to advance previous the divisional spherical primarily based on seeding. Last 12 months’s Chiefs had been a 3 seed, the 2021 Rams had been a 4 seed and the 2020 Bucs gained as a 5 seed, profitable three video games on the highway to the Super Bowl.
How massive is the house area benefit normally? Less than you may anticipate. Last season, in 272 video games, house groups went 145-127, which equates to a profitable proportion of .533, about the identical as a 9-8 group over the course of a complete season. That lead shrank barely from 2023, when house NFL groups went 151-121, good for a .555 profitable proportion, similar to a 5-4 report.
In 2023, all eight NFL divisions had a minimum of a .500 house report, however this season, the AFC South went 14-18 at house, the NFC South went 15-21 and three different divisions it was .500 at house. Thus, within the 2024 NFL season, solely three of eight divisions had total house profitable data.
Because the NFL provides division champions an computerized house recreation, the house group is just not essentially the higher group in some first-round matchups. The Vikings (14-3) have essentially the most wins of any wild card in NFL historical past, so no shock, they’re 2.5-point favorites over the Rams (10-7) and, alongside the identical traces, the Chargers ( 11-6) are the three-point favorites of the Texans (10-7). FOX Sports NFL analyst Bucky Brooks’ playoff group rankings have Minnesota at 4, nicely forward of the host Rams at 9, and the Chargers at 8, 4 spots above the Texans at 12.
(Read extra: NFL playoff group rankings: Chiefs lead a stacked area headed to the postseason)
Even extra so within the playoffs, groups are judged by their quarterbacks. As a trivia query, what number of of this 12 months’s 14 beginning quarterbacks on playoff groups have playoff profitable data? Six of the 14 have zero or one win, and the proper reply is barely two: Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is way forward at 15-3, Pittsburgh’s Russell Wilson is 9-7 (with only one win since 2016), and the others are all .500 or worse.
The data of even the very best playoff quarterbacks ever present that it is a lot harder on the highway. Tom Brady was 35-13 in his playoff profession, however simply 7-4 in highway video games, in comparison with 21-6 at house and 7-3 in Super Bowls.
Tom Brady led the wild card Bucs to the Super Bowl LV title as a 5 seed, profitable three video games on the highway. (Photo by Simon Bruty/Sports Illustrated through Getty Images)
The shadow forged by Mahomes is big: He has extra playoff wins than all seven NFC beginning quarterbacks on this 12 months’s postseason mixed (they’re 13-14). Buffalo’s Josh Allen is 5-5 within the playoffs and would not go on the highway this postseason till the AFC championship recreation, and Buffalo is forward of third-seeded Baltimore, the place Lamar Jackson may win his third MVP, however he is simply 2-4 within the playoffs.
The prime 4 seeds on this 12 months’s playoffs — the Chiefs, Lions, Bills and Eagles — had been a mixed 31-3 at house this season, making it a lot more durable for decrease seeds to drag off lengthy streaks of playoffs. But the primary spherical may nonetheless go topsy-turvy, realizing the Bucs and Rams had been simply 5-4 at house and the Texans had been 5-3. Houston hosts a Chargers group that has carried out higher on the highway (6-3) than at house this season, whereas the Bucs host a Washington group that’s 5-3 on the highway.
Greg Auman is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He beforehand spent a decade masking the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and the Athletic. You can comply with him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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