The Palestinian militant group Hamas has been hit arduous by 15 months of warfare in Gaza however has not suffered the eradication that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supposed, consultants say.
After having unleashed the bloodiest warfare within the historical past of the Palestinian territory, Hamas now finds itself having to query its legitimacy and the chance to stay to its coverage of armed resistance.
“Hamas has been terribly weakened, its army capability and management tremendously broken,” stated Sanam Vakil, director of Chatham House’s Middle East program.
However, “these challenges are additionally alternatives for Hamas,” he advised AFP.
Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed by Israel in a bombing in Tehran final July, and Israeli troopers killed his successor and Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar just a few weeks later.
The group’s armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, continued to battle in Gaza however suffered heavy casualties.
“Hamas is underneath stress,” stated Hugh Lovatt, a senior fellow on the European Council on Foreign Relations.
He highlighted the struggling of the inhabitants, in addition to the choice of Hezbollah, Hamas’s Lebanese ally, to signal a ceasefire settlement with Israel in November, even because the Gaza warfare continues.
However, a outstanding Hamas chief said that the group “represents an thought aimed toward liberating Palestine, not only a group of individuals the enemy can get rid of.”
“The resistance will proceed so long as the occupation exists,” he advised AFP.
– Grown assist –
Despite the devastation of each Hamas and the Gaza Strip since October 2023, the group has achieved some successes, consultants say.
Because Netanyahu has declared the group’s annihilation a warfare goal, Hamas sees “its survival as a victory in itself,” stated Jamal al-Fadi, a Palestinian political scientist.
Lovatt stated assist for Hamas has grown and that within the occupied West Bank “clearly many individuals really feel aligned with their concepts.”
In the latest research by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Research, revealed in September, Hamas had the very best assist of any social gathering, at 36%, though this represents a four-point drop from July.
Yasser Abu Hein, one other Palestinian political scientist, stated the Oct. 7 assault had “elevated Hamas to international relevance” and gained the sympathy of individuals all over the world, “even Americans.”
That stated, consultants level out that Hamas assist amongst Palestinians exists within the distinctive context of Gaza and the West Bank, the place there have been no elections in practically 20 years and political shops are extraordinarily restricted.
The majority of Palestinians don’t assist any political group, Lovatt stated, be it Hamas, its foremost rival and dominant pressure within the Palestinian Authority Fatah, or another.
Joost Hilterman of the International Crisis Group stated that well-liked assist for Hamas “as a bunch finishing up the armed wrestle towards army occupation” by Israel stems from a scarcity of political options.
He stated the warfare has additionally allowed Hamas to search out new recruits, “as so many younger Palestinians in Gaza have been orphaned.”
That was a sentiment supported by prime US diplomat Antony Blinken, who stated this week that in the course of the warfare “Hamas has recruited nearly as many new militants because it has misplaced.”
He known as this “a recipe for resisting revolt and perpetual warfare.”
– “Hamas 2.0” –
While Hamas might have survived the Israeli army onslaught and gained some assist in doing so, Vakil stated it truly discovered itself in a legitimacy disaster.
Many “Palestinians see Hamas as a part of the issue,” he stated.
The group “can solely be thought-about reliable if it succeeds in restoring governance and accountability and turning into… a consultant voice for Palestinians.”
Many consultants stated that in the course of the ceasefire negotiations, Hamas made compromises however was unwilling to bend to the return of displaced Gazans and elevated humanitarian assist to the besieged territory.
“Their want to finish the warfare has led them to point out some flexibility, however they continue to be steadfast of their foremost aims,” particularly the battle towards Israel, Lovatt stated, including that the group may regenerate its army capabilities.
Vakil stated that “it will be necessary to guage how Palestinians themselves will consider the Hamas panorama,” stressing that Hamas is co-responsible for the destruction brought on by the warfare.
The greatest unknowns stay: how Hamas will select to function within the post-war interval and the way it will attempt to signify the October 7 assault and its penalties.
While it could compromise to stay related, Vakil stated it’s doable to “think about an rising Hamas 2.0, extra radicalized and maybe motivated by the occasions of October 7.”
az-crb/dcp/jd/srm
