Eric Williams
NFL reporter
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have identified all season that the street to the Super Bowl runs by means of Kansas City. Allen & Co. proved they’ll beat the Chiefs with a 30-21 win at Buffalo in Week 11.
The postseason, nevertheless, was a unique story.
Patrick Mahomes owns a 3-0 file over Allen within the playoffs, together with a 27-24 win at Buffalo in final season’s AFC divisional spherical. For the second time in 4 seasons, the Bills and Chiefs will face one another within the AFC title sport. And this yr, the Bills-Chiefs sport is at Arrowhead Stadium.
“It’s what we labored for,” Allen stated of going through Mahomes and the Chiefs once more. “It’s a chance to play one other week. We don’t desire our season to finish in defeat. And this offers us a chance to maneuver ahead.”
Here’s a better take a look at the star-studded AFC Championship showdown.
No. 1 seed: Kansas City Chiefs
Biggest promoting level: Of course, Mahomes is the straw that breaks the camel’s again for Kansas City. His distinctive potential to execute on the finish of video games is a serious cause the Chiefs have gained 16 straight video games by one rating courting again to final season. Mahomes has a profession passer ranking of 98.2 in fourth quarter and additional time through the common season. And that jumps to 108.6 passer ranking within the playoffs. With probably the most thrilling quarterbacks in NFL historical past paired with a future Hall of Fame coach in Andy Reid, the Chiefs will discover themselves in a tricky spot as they chase an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl victory. Winners of 9 consecutive AFC West division titles courting again to 2016, the Chiefs personal the No. 1 seed for the fourth time throughout Mahomes’ tenure. Kansas City has appeared in six AFC championships and 4 Super Bowls (profitable three) since turning into a starter in 2018.
Patrick Mahomes, are Chiefs formally prepared for the three-peat?
Biggest query mark: Can the Chiefs hold the soccer? They have not given up a turnover in eight video games, however they dedicated two fumbles in a win over the Houston Texans final week, recovering each. During the 2024 common season, Mahomes threw 11 interceptions, rating ninth within the NFL, however has simply two interceptions in six AFC Championship video games. The Bills had 16 picks through the common season – tied for No. 5 within the league – and three takeaways of their win over the Baltimore Ravens final week. In the playoffs, the place each possession counts, Buffalo’s potential to steal a possession from the Chiefs shall be essential.
X-factor: While Kansas City’s success begins with Mahomes, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is second. Spagnuolo, the primary coach in NFL historical past to win 4 Super Bowls as a defensive coordinator, has as soon as once more put collectively among the best defenses within the league. The Chiefs allowed 19.2 factors per sport in 2024, No. 4 within the NFL. As of the beginning of the 2023 season, Kansas City has the No. 1 scoring and whole protection within the league. To beat the Chiefs within the postseason, opposing offenses want to determine the right way to transfer the soccer persistently towards among the best defensive minds within the sport. Last week, the Chiefs sacked Houston quarterback CJ Stroud eight instances whereas holding the Texans to 14 factors.
Seed #2: Buffalo payments
Biggest promoting level: Leading one of many NFL’s most explosive offenses, Allen completed with 42 whole touchdowns in 2024, becoming a member of Aaron Rodgers as the one gamers with 40 or extra whole touchdowns in a minimum of 5 NFL seasons. Running again James Cook, a Pro Bowl snub who completed with 1,009 yards and tied the league file with 16 speeding touchdowns, offered steadiness on offense. With the commerce of WR1 Stefon Diggs final offseason, the Bills completed with a league-leading eight gamers with a number of touchdowns in 2024. Khalil Shakir led Buffalo with 76 receptions for 821 receiving yards through the common season. Last week towards the Ravens, Shakir had a team-high six receptions for 67 yards.
Biggest query mark: In defeating Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry & Co. final week, Buffalo did a very good job shutting down probably the most explosive speeding assaults within the league. But within the common season, the Bills struggled towards playoff groups, going 2-3 towards groups that made the playoffs. They allowed 108 extra yards per sport towards present playoff groups and averaged 33 factors, fourth all-time for a playoff group. Buffalo wants a very good efficiency from the protection to beat Mahomes and the Chiefs.
X-factor: Allen had his finest yr avoiding turnovers, and Buffalo tied for the fewest giveaways (8) in any season since 1990. The Bills had a turnover margin of plus-24, the very best differential of any NFL group since 2012 . Last weekend towards the Ravens, the Bills gained the turnover battle 3-0. If Allen & Co. can win that battle this week towards the Chiefs, they might considerably enhance their possibilities of reaching the Super Bowl for the primary time since 1994.
Prediction: Expect one other shut sport that comes right down to closing possession between these two groups. The play might come right down to which offense has the ball final. But it is troublesome to face Mahomes within the postseason, given Kansas City’s previous success. Heads 30, Counts 27
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for greater than a decade, masking the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN e Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.
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