BEIRUT (AP) — The final time the Syrian president Bashar Assad was in dire straits 10 years in the past on the top of the nation’s civil struggle, when its forces misplaced management of components of the most important metropolis, Aleppo, and its adversaries had been closing in on the capital, Damascus.
Then he was saved by his individuals main international supporterRussia and Iran, a long-time regional ally, which along with the highly effective Lebanese militia Hezbollah helped Assad’s forces retake Aleppo, tipping the struggle firmly in his favor.
Now, whereas the insurgents pursue a shock offensive who rapidly captured not solely Aleppo, but additionally the important thing metropolis of Hama and quite a lot of different cities within the nation’s northwest, the Syrian chief seems to be largely alone.
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Russia is nervous concerning the struggle in Ukraine, and Hezbollah, which at one level despatched hundreds of its fighters to assist Assad’s forces, has been weakened by a year-long battle with Israel. Iran, in the meantime, has seen its proxies within the area weakened by Israeli airstrikes.
Furthermore, Syrian troops are exhausted and depleted by 13 years of struggle and financial crises, with little will to combat.
So will Assad’s authorities collapse within the close to future?
“The coming days and weeks will likely be essential in figuring out whether or not the insurgent offensive will pose an existential menace to the Assad regime or whether or not the regime will be capable of regain its footing and roll again the rebels’ current beneficial properties,” stated Mona Yacoubian, an analyst for United States. State Institute for Peace.
“Even if weakened and distracted, Assad’s allies are unlikely to easily give in to the insurgent offensive,” he wrote in a single evaluation.
Not out of the woods
Until lately, it appeared that the Syrian president was virtually out of hazard. He by no means really received the lengthy civil struggle and far of the nation was nonetheless out of his management.
But after 13 years of battle, it appeared the worst was over and the world was able to overlook. Once thought of a regional pariah, Assad has seen Arab international locations transfer nearer to him once more, renewing ties and restoring Syria’s membership within the Arab League. Earlier this 12 months, Italy additionally determined to reopen its embassy in Damascus after a decade of tense relations.
In the aftermath of one of many world’s largest humanitarian crises, support teams and worldwide donors in Syria have begun to pivot in direction of spending extra on the nation’s restoration than on emergency help, offering a lifeline to Syrians and restoring fundamental providers.
But then the sudden offensive launched by the insurgents on November 27 reignited the struggle and took everybody unexpectedly with its scale and velocity.
It has additionally left Syria’s neighbors anxious, cautious that violence and refugees might spill over the borders and nervous concerning the rising affect of Islamist teams, a serious concern for many of Syria’s Arab neighbors.
Geopolitical adjustments
Analysts say the confluence of geopolitical developments, beginning with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, adopted by the struggle between Israel and Hamas in Gaza that started on October 7, 2023, helped create the chance for Assad’s opponents to pounce on the assault.
As the rebels superior final week, Syrian forces appeared to soften away, providing no resistance, with a number of stories of defection. Russian forces carried out occasional airstrikes. Hezbollah’s chief in Lebanon stated the group would proceed to assist Syria, however made no point out of sending new fighters.
“The insurgent assault highlights the precarious nature of regime management in Syria,” Yacoubian wrote.
“Its sudden explosion and the velocity with which insurgent teams had been in a position to achieve the higher hand in Aleppo… spotlight the complicated dynamics that reside simply beneath the floor in Syria and might flip superficial calm into main battle.”
Aron Lund, a Syria professional at Century International, a New York-based suppose tank and a researcher on the Swedish Defense Research Agency, stated the developments in Syria are a geopolitical catastrophe for Russia and Iran.
“They had been undoubtedly shocked by what occurred too, they usually have all kinds of limitations when it comes to assets,” together with Russia’s struggle in Ukraine and Hezbollah’s losses in Lebanon and Syria.
Exhausted and damaged
While the nation’s battle strains have largely stalled since 2020, Syria’s financial issues have solely multiplied lately.
The imposition of US sanctions, the banking disaster in neighboring Lebanon and final 12 months’s earthquake have mixed to go away almost all Syrians going through excessive monetary hardship.
This brought about the decline of state establishments and wages.
“If you possibly can’t pay your troopers a dwelling wage, then perhaps you possibly can’t count on them to remain and combat when hundreds of Islamists storm” their cities, Lund stated. “It’s simply an exhausted, damaged, dysfunctional regime” to start with.
Part of the insurgents’ try to reassert their grip on Aleppo, town from which they had been pushed out in 2016 after a grueling army marketing campaign, was to ask authorities troopers and safety companies to defect, granting them what they known as safety,” which supply a form of amnesty and the assure that they won’t be hunted down.
Insurgent spokesman Hassan Abdul-Ghani stated greater than 1,600 troopers utilized for the playing cards in two days within the metropolis of Aleppo.
Hundreds of deserters lined up outdoors town’s police stations on Thursday to register their particulars with the insurgents.
Hossam al-Bakr, 33, a Hama native who served in Damascus and defected 4 years earlier to Aleppo, stated he had come to “set up his place” and procure a brand new id card.
The laminated card distributed to every defector was titled “Defection Card.” It confirmed the identify, identification quantity and place of obligation of every deserter. It is issued by the “General Command: Military Operations Room”.
On Thursday, Major Mohamed Ghoneim, in command of registering deserters, stated greater than 1,000 troopers and law enforcement officials confirmed up for the registration. Some who had been in possession of official weapons surrendered them, he added.
“There are hundreds who need to apply,” he stated.
Charles Lister, a longtime Syria professional, stated that whereas many of the worldwide group considers the battle frozen or over, the armed opposition has by no means given up and has been getting ready for such a situation for years.
A ragtag militia group, suffering from infighting and rivalry, has spent years getting ready and organizing, pushed by the dream of regaining management of the territory from Assad.
“The regime has been extra susceptible within the final 12 months or two than it has been maybe throughout the whole battle,” Lister stated. “And he is gotten used to the concept that if he can wait issues out, he’ll show to be the winner in the long run.”
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Karam contributed reporting from London.
