Jason McIntyre
Co-host of THE HERD and FOX sports activities betting analyst
Wild Card Weekend is right here and I am unable to wait to dive into what must be an unbelievable weekend NFL video games.
There are many good bets we might make throughout this primary weekend of the playoffs.
In addition to assist Los Angelesmy picks this week embody a few teasers.
Check out my greatest bets for Wild Card Weekend.
MONDAY JAN. 13
Vikings @ Rams (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
It’s troublesome to deal with the handicap as a result of the sport was moved to Arizona because of the California wildfires. Earlier within the week, cash arrived for the Rams. After the change of venue, the Vikings climbed again to -2.5.
However, I believe the Rams are the group right here, with the factors and on the moneyline.
Sam Darnold he is having the perfect season of his profession by a major margin, however that is his first playoff recreation. Quarterbacks making their first playoff begin when dealing with a QB with playoff expertise are 19-37-1 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) over the past 22 years and are 19-38 general (SU).
In a de facto playoff recreation in Week 18 with the No. 1 seed on the road, Darnold fought mightily. He went 18 of 41 for 166 yards in his worst efficiency of the season.
The Lions confused Darnold with the blitz. They would change from man protection to zone protection, forcing the QB to carry the ball and course of an additional second or two.
He could not ship.
The Rams protection is not as blitz-happy (Minnesota ranks first in blitz share this season; the Rams rank twentieth). So Darnold will not be that unhealthy, except the Vikings play catch-up all night time. They had extra snaps when main than another group within the NFL this season.
This recreation will ignite the Rams offense, which is at full power Matt Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper coup AND Puka Nacua all wholesome. That hasn’t been the case for many of the season, but it surely was within the final assembly with the Vikings. It was a 30-20 Rams win at Sofi on Thursday Night Football.
Stafford is a veteran – a future Hall of Fame inductee – and there is not a blitz he hasn’t seen. Against the blitz this season, Stafford ranks third in YPA and fourth in DVOA.
If you are affected person sufficient, you may in all probability get the Rams for a greater value after the Vikings kick off and rating on their scheduled drive.
PICK: Rams (+2) will lose by lower than 2 factors or win outright
CHOOSE: Rams Moneyline
Steelers (+9.5) cowl, Eagles (-4.5) win, Rams (+2.5) upset Vikings in Wild Card Weekend
Invoices, Eagles, Crows Moneyline Parlay
The payout right here is nearly even ($100 guess wins $102), and you’ve got two massive residence favorites, plus the mighty Eagles at residence.
First, let’s check out Broncos-Hells recreation. I’ve been screaming for weeks that I am unable to wait to fade away BoNix within the playoffs and I am unable to wait to again the Bills right here. The Broncos deserve all of the reward for making the playoffs, however that is a particularly troublesome state of affairs.
Denver was 1-7 in opposition to groups with successful information. He beat a playoff group and that was the Bucs at Tampa Bay in Week 3. Every time he obtained forward in school, he misplaced.
Maybe Sean Payton can work some magic within the street playoffs and hold him round. They are 4-0 (ATS) on the street within the postseason. But barring a large Josh Allen meltdown, it appears to be like prefer it’s 35-10.
So we’ve Steelers-Crows. Like the Broncos, the Steelers they’ve had a charmed season. However, issues have fallen off these days, with 4 consecutive defeats.
When Pittsburgh received in October and November, it was because of massive performs on the sector. The Steelers blended deep throws with a plodding working recreation, and it labored effectively sufficient for a 10-3 begin. But the deep pictures dried up, as groups went to two-man protection and protection Russell Wilson he struggled to take what the opposition gave him.
Maybe the Zay Fiori the damage limits Baltimore’s offense and Pittsburgh is ready to maintain on. But 10-point favorites are 17-1 SU within the playoffs.
Greg Olsen breaks down the Eagles-Packers wild card present
We lastly have it Packers-Eagles.
The Packers are doubtlessly scary. Think again to what they did final yr Dallas. They beat the Cowboys 48-32, then overcame the 49ers earlier than dropping 24-21. Matt LaFleur is a superb coach, however he does not have a full deck with him Christian Watson out for the season. With Watson out, the Packers’ offense is much less explosive, as he’s the burner it’s important to deeply respect. Defenses had been in a position to sit on routes and stack bins to cease the run. It may very well be a tricky run for the Packers offense.
THE Jalen hurts the concussion confuses issues as a result of it’s important to assume he will not run as a lot. If the Packers are of their commonplace two-man protection protection, it appears to be like like a recreation the place Saquon Barkley has 25 carries. If the Packers go well with as much as take Barkley away, he turns into a AJ Brown recreation as a result of the Packers have nobody to defend him.
PICK: Parlay Bills, Eagles, Ravens Moneylines
Parkins’ picks for Wild Card Weekend: Chargers run wild, Ravens take flight
7-point two-team teaser
Texans +8.5, Bills -3
We’ve already talked in regards to the Bills’ favorable matchups once they face the Broncos. You may also take a look at Allen’s Over props in opposition to this run-heavy Denver protection, however throwing the Texans on this teaser appears to be like like a winner.
The Chargers shall be on the street for the third straight week and, keep in mind, they’d one among their first byes on October sixth. Yes, they’ve had some blowout wins alongside the best way, however in opposition to groups which might be drawing fairly excessive, like New England and Las Vegas.
The solely two playoff groups the Chargers beat? Denver and twice. They misplaced twice to Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Baltimore and Tampa.
It appears to be like just like the final group with the ball wins in a low scoring kind of match. And scoring multiple aim at residence with the Texans is a group I like.
PICK: Teaser Houston +8.5, Buffalo -3
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who additionally writes in regards to the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the web site The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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