CFP 2024 Action Report: ‘It was virtually nothing however Buckeyes motion’

The College Football Playoff semifinal odds have an fascinating twist concerned at Caesars Sports, a minimum of with regards to the second semifinal, which is Friday night time’s showdown between Ohio State and Texas within the Cotton Bowl.

A month in the past, earlier than convention championship weekend, a Louisiana shopper shelled out a whopping $1.5 million on Texas +390 to win the nationwide championship. So, clearly, that affected Caesars’ desired final result on Friday night time.

“We’ll in all probability be rooting for Ohio State to win the Super Bowl within the center, however not the protection,” mentioned Joey Feazel, head of soccer buying and selling at Caesars Sports.

Feazel and school soccer betting skilled Paul Stone give their opinions on odds for the College Football Playoff semifinals.

Opening act

Before Ohio State and Texas take the sphere, it is Notre Dame vs. Penn State within the Orange Bowl. Caesars Sports opened the Fighting Irish as a 1.5-point favourite, went to -2 on Friday and was at -2.5 for about 12 hours on Tuesday.

But the purpose unfold has since shifted towards Penn State, with Notre Dame favored by simply 1 level as of Wednesday night time, forward of Thursday’s 7:30 PM ET kickoff. However, Feazel mentioned Notre Dame continues to see more cash.

Bettors are additionally shifting in the direction of decrease scoring video games. The whole opened at 47 and dropped as little as 44.5 Wednesday morning, then climbed again as much as 45.

“This displays the motion we’re seeing now. These two groups have robust defenses. Most of the motion is in Under, together with sharper motion in Under 47 and Under 46,” Feazel mentioned.

This is in keeping with each groups’ efficiency to date in College Football Playoff odds. The Under is 2-0 Notre Dame and 2-0 Ohio State within the CFP.

The Fighting Irish enter the semifinals at 13-1 web (SU) and 12-2 towards the unfold (ATS), the second-best spread-covering mark in all of school soccer this season. The Nittany Lions are 13-2 SU/8-7 ATS.

CFP Super Six Semifinal: Ohio State vs. Texas, Penn State vs. Notre Dame

The Buckeyes bandwagon

Ohio State has been a freight prepare within the playoffs to date, successful its two video games by a mixed 45 factors. In the quarterfinals, the Buckeyes (12-2 SU/8-6 ATS) jumped out to a 34-0 lead late within the second quarter towards Oregon after which cruised to a 41-21 victory.

On the opposite hand, Texas blew a 24-8 fourth-quarter lead towards Arizona State and was dragged into extra time tied at 24. The Longhorns (13-2 SU/8-7 ATS) have gained 39 -31 in double extra time however they do not cowl the 13.5 level favorites.

These outcomes have led oddsmakers to considerably change their opinions on Ohio State vs. Texas, which begins Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET. Caesars opened the sport at Buckeyes -4.5 on Jan. 1, and inside an hour or so, the road went to -5.5, then -6, the place it remained Wednesday night time.

“The Ohio State opener was actually excessive. Some of the predictions for that sport had been Ohio State -1.5/-2,” Feazel mentioned. “It’s an enormous response and adjustment, based mostly on two video games.”

But bettors appear high quality betting 6s at Caesars and 5.5s at another books. The betting lots have a tendency to recollect most of what they noticed final time, and that was the Buckeyes outlasting two CFP foes.

“There’s a robust topical bias as of late within the state of Ohio. It’s been virtually nothing however Buckeyes motion,” Feazel mentioned, noting Caesars noticed a robust play on Texas +6.

Ohio State can also be getting many of the cash consideration from Caesars. In that case, the Buckeyes simply must win the sport, whatever the margin. Ohio State’s moneyline odds are presently -225, that means a $225 guess is required to win $100 (whole win $325).

As famous above, although, Caesars additionally holds the $1.5 million guess on Texas to win the nationwide title. So the guide is rooting for an Ohio State win and a Texas hedge, to take all of the Buckeyes unfold bets and that monstrous Longhorns championship guess.

Can Notre Dame decelerate Penn State’s sport?

Sharp aspect on campus

Calculation was on course in main Arizona State to cowl a 13.5-point underdog towards Texas within the CFP quarterfinals. He’s following up with a play on Ohio State vs. Texas.

And it is going towards the Longhorns once more.

Stone admitted that he’s maybe responsible of the aforementioned recency bias, however recommends inserting 5.5 factors with Ohio State. He thinks the Buckeyes will defeat the Longhorns by a landing or extra.

“It’s laborious to disregard the dominance Ohio State confirmed in its first two playoff victories, over ninth-place Tennessee and first-place Oregon,” Stone mentioned. “The Buckeyes averaged eight yards per play in these wins, permitting simply 3.8 yards per play.

“They are taking part in with nice willpower and confidence. Quarterback Will Howard has improved his sport and takes care of the soccer.”

Stone was significantly impressed with Ohio State’s emphatic begins throughout the two playoff video games. The Buckeyes led Tennessee 21-0 after simply 12 minutes, and Oregon 31-0 lower than 22 minutes into the sport.

“Ohio State has discovered one other gear that I believe the opposite three groups are lacking,” Stone mentioned. “If Texas does not stress Howard and drive him to make errors, I believe the Longhorns could possibly be in for an extended day.”

Best bets, odds and predictions for the CFP semifinal

I like huge bets and I can not lie

Not to beat a useless horse — or a reside guess, for that matter — however that $1.5 million guess on Texas +390 to win all of it looms over Caesars Sports. If Texas upsets Ohio State, then beats Penn State or Notre Dame, the bettor will get an enormous revenue of $5.85 million, for a complete win of $7.35 million.

Then there’s this intriguing state of affairs at Caesars in regards to the Notre Dame-Penn State sport:

• Long in the past, on September 9, after the Fighting Irish had shockingly misplaced to Northern Illinois, a buyer had guess $500 on Notre Dame +8000 (80/1) to win the nationwide title. The bettor would earn $40,000 if Notre Dame makes it the space.
• During Thursday’s sport, a buyer at Caesars this week guess $165,000 on Penn State +2.

Wouldn’t or not it’s fascinating if Notre Dame gained by one level? The Fighting Irish futures guess lives on, with an opportunity to win $40,000 on January twentieth. And the Penn State bettor pockets $150,000 in revenue (whole win of $315,000).

Something value watching on Thursday night time. Enjoy the semi-finals.

Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting trade. He lives in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys taking part in golf in 110-degree warmth. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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