Jayden Daniels or CJ Stroud as a rookie?
It’s a query that should come to thoughts throughout Daniels’ historic rookie season. The favourite for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, Daniels led the Commanders on a game-winning area aim to beat the Buccaneers within the NFC wild card final week, securing Washington’s first divisional spherical look in 19 years. The No. 2 general decide additionally grew to become the primary rookie beginning quarterback to win a playoff sport on the highway since 2012.
Daniels’ playoff success (to this point), coupled with an excellent common season that earned him a Pro Bowl nomination, has led some nationwide pundits to exit on a limb and say he had the perfect season of a rookie quarterback by no means – a 12 months after many had stated the identical factor about Stroud.
Last 12 months’s second general decide, Stroud additionally led his crew to the divisional spherical as a rookie (the Texans in the end misplaced to the Ravens within the second spherical). He grew to become the youngest quarterback ever to win a playoff sport in Houston’s wild-card win over Cleveland. Much of the reward heaped on Stroud – about his poise and the way he performed past his years – was recycled and given to Daniels.
That’s to not say Daniels did not earn it; he was the most effective quarterbacks within the league in 2024 as a rookie. But he deserves a better have a look at the season he had and the one Stroud had final 12 months.
Here’s a breakdown of childhood mates’ rookie seasons by class, who will get the sting in every, and what it means:
THE BEST PASSER?
It relies on the way you have a look at it.
In phrases of effectivity, Daniels has the sting. He accomplished a better share of passes throughout the common season (Daniels at 69%, Stroud at 63.9%), recorded extra passing touchdowns (25, 23) and had fewer turnover-worthy performs (1.7% , 2.8%), in line with Focus on skilled soccer. Daniels additionally beats Stroud in some superior metrics, together with anticipated factors added per dropback (plus-0.13, plus-0.6) and completion share over anticipated (plus-2.0, plus-0.9% ), in line with Next Gen Stats.
But Stroud has the sting in most conventional passing classes, together with interceptions (Stroud with 5, Daniels with 9), passing yards per try (8.2, 7.4) and whole passing yards (4,108 ; 3,568) regardless of Stroud enjoying two fewer video games final 12 months.
Daniels had the weakest pass-catching corps (by manufacturing and doubtless expertise stage), positive. But Stroud’s numbers are astonishing. He beforehand joined Tom Brady and Joe Montana as the one quarterbacks 50 years to guide the NFL in passing yards per sport (273.9) and touchdown-interception ratio (4.6) – as a rookie.
The Texans quarterback was additionally barely higher than Daniels towards strain as a rookie. Stroud had a greater completion charge, completion charge than anticipated, passing yards, touchdown-interception ratio and passer score than Daniels, regardless of falling 11 extra instances towards strain, in line with Next Gen Stats.
Edge: Stroud
Can CJ Stroud, Texans, upset Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs?
THE BEST RUSHER?
Stroud is a standard pocket passer who can scramble when he must. While Daniels is minimize from the identical fabric, he additionally has a capability as a runner that makes him the most effective dual-threat quarterbacks within the league. Commanders deploy runs designed with him and he is aware of the best way to shield his skinny, 210-pound body.
Daniels led Washington with 891 speeding yards, the third-most in league historical past for a participant with a passer score of no less than 100, in line with Next Gen Stats. He additionally led the NFL in speeding yards on scrambles (600). His 28 rushes for 233 yards and 20 first downs on third and fourth down mixed led the NFL once more this season.
Daniels had six speeding touchdowns on 148 carries to associate with his 891 speeding yards. Stroud, in the meantime, had simply 39 carries for 167 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie.
Edge: Daniels
WHO IS MORE CLUTCH?
Daniels’ game-winning drive within the NFC wild-card sport towards the Bucs was the last word testomony to what he is carried out all season within the greatest moments.
There’s the Hail Mary to beat the Bears in Week 8. The go-ahead landing with six seconds left to beat the Eagles in Week 15. How he took the chance to beat the Bengals in Week 3, his first sport within the early night. Daniels has helped Washington win eight video games by one rating this season. Including the playoffs, he has 5 game-winning drives and 5 fourth-quarter comebacks (to this point).
Last season, although, Stroud seemed simply as snug in crunch time as Daniels does now. Biggest spotlight: Completing greater than 71% of his passes for 470 yards and 5 touchdowns with no interceptions, together with the game-winning rating with six seconds left, to beat Tampa in Week 9 of the 2023 season.
But the 2023 Texans have seven one-score victories in comparison with the Commanders’ eight this season. Stroud additionally had simply two game-winning drives and one fourth-quarter comeback, in comparison with Daniels’ 5 in each classes.
Edge: Daniels
Where Jayden Daniels’ 12 months ranks among the many all-time rookie seasons
WHAT’S THE VERDICT?
Daniels will get a slight benefit.
He additionally has the prospect to make historical past in a method that Stroud could not. Both reached the divisional spherical as rookies, however Daniels nonetheless has an opportunity to go additional. By serving to the Commanders upset the top-seeded Lions on Saturday, Daniels would turn out to be simply the fifth rookie quarterback to begin a convention championship sport for the reason that NFL merged in 1970. This achievement, along with the season he has already had, would put Daniels in a category all his personal, above a few of the different rookie quarterbacks in historical past, together with Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton.
Ultimately, Daniels and Stroud’s rookie seasons should be analyzed within the context of their conditions. And as beforehand famous, Stroud acquired extra manufacturing from his move catchers. They additionally had a greater protection (the Texans ranked sixteenth in defensive DVOA final season, whereas the Commanders ranked twenty third this 12 months, in line with FTN Data). You can also’t ignore Daniels’ superior operating capacity, or the truth that he has extra wins (13 and counting in comparison with Stroud’s 10, together with playoffs) whereas enjoying in a more durable division.
None of this implies Daniels can have a greater profession than Stroud, who regressed statistically in his second season. We nonetheless do not know the way Daniels will reply as soon as groups have a whole season’s price of tape on him.
But proper now, Daniels stands out as a rookie quarterback making historical past.
Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He beforehand labored for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, the place he was Titans beat the author for a 12 months and a half. It lined the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for 3 seasons (2018-20) earlier than shifting to Tennessee. You can observe Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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