Bob Pockrass
FOX NASCAR Insider
The NASCAR playoffs take a dramatic flip from the spherical of 16 (quarterfinals) to the spherical of 16 (semifinals).
It’s now not about surviving and advancing. A driver fairly often must win or come near profitable a number of instances.
Joey Logano earned his win Sunday in Las Vegas. And after some struggles in Las Vegas, 4 drivers discover themselves at the very least 27 factors below the restrict and want a fantastic race at Homestead and/or Martinsville or a win at a kind of two occasions.
Denny Hamlin (27 factors behind), Tyler Reddick (minus-30), Ryan Blaney (minus-47) and Chase Elliott (minus-53) have to win or have nice races and good luck.
“We completely need to win,” Elliott stated. “But truthfully, that was my mentality too (in Las Vegas). Nothing modifications for me.”
NASCAR’s model of the playoffs – the place even these exterior the playoffs nonetheless compete every week – takes place within the remaining 10 races of the season. The first three rounds encompass three races, and the 4 drivers with out victories within the lowest-scoring spherical are eradicated, creating 4 drivers who’re entitled to the title within the season finale in Phoenix with the motive force ending greatest (not getting stage factors ) topped the champion.
In every spherical, the advancing drivers’ level totals are reset to zero (2000 within the first spherical, 3000 within the quarter-finals, 4000 within the semi-finals, 5000 for the championship) with playoff factors earned through the season added to the whole apart from the championship.
The tracks:
- Opening spherical: Atlanta (winner-Joey Logano), Watkins Glen (winner-Chris Buescher, not a playoff driver), Bristol (winner-Kyle Larson). Advanced: Logano, Larson, Austin Cindric, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman and Daniel Suarez. Eliminated from playoff rivalry: Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski and Harrison Burton.
- Quarterfinals: Kansas (winner-Ross Chastain, not a playoff driver), Talladega (winner-Ricky Stenhouse Jr., not a playoff driver), Charlotte (winner-Kyle Larson). Advanced: Byron, Larson, Bell, Blaney, Elliott, Hamlin, Reddick and Logano. Eliminated from playoff rivalry: Bowman, Cindric, Suarez, Briscoe.
- Semifinal: Las Vegas (winner-Logano), Homestead (1.5-mile oval), Martinsville (0.526-mile oval). Advanced: Logano, to be outlined.
- Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval).
Here are my playoff rankings based mostly on the very best shot to win the title on the worst shot.
1. Christopher Bell (Last week: 2)
Joe Gibbs Racing no. 20 Toyotas
Position: 2nd, +42 on the sting of the playoffs
2023 Homestead Finish: 1st
Bell had probably the most highly effective automotive in Las Vegas and located itself at an obstacle as a result of gasoline consumption. He gained at Homestead a yr in the past and is respectable sufficient at Martinsville (one win, three top-10s in his profession) to make it to Phoenix, the place we in all probability need not remind you that he gained within the spring.
Prediction: Championship 4 however no title (no change)
2. Kyle Larson (L: 1)
Chevrolet no. 5 by Hendrick Motorsports
Position: third, +35 on the sting of the playoffs
2023 Homestead Finish: thirty fourth
One unhealthy day within the pits in Las Vegas cannot get into this workforce’s head and break its momentum. It should not, however till they put collectively a flawless race, there could also be questions on whether or not Las Vegas is an anomaly or not. Larson has 5 top-5s in 10 begins at Homestead and 6 stage wins, so if he wins a couple of levels and will get a superb end, he should not break a sweat at Martinsville.
Prediction: Sample (no change)
3. William Byron (LW: 3)
Chevrolet no. 24 by Hendrick Motorsports
Position: 4th, +27 on the sting of the playoffs
2023 Homestead Finish: 4th
Byron has completed within the prime 4 within the final 4 Cup races, however at all times appears to be one spot behind one other playoff driver. The excellent news: Stay there this lengthy and there might be days when it is the very best of the very best. He has gained at Homestead, Martinsville and Phoenix in his profession (together with at Martinsville within the spring). It’s a risk.
Prediction: Championship 4 however no title (no change)
4. Joey Logano (LW: 8)
Team Penske No. 22 Fords
Rank: Advanced to Champion 4
2023 Homestead Finish: eighth
Logano is aware of he’ll be in Championship 4, however he additionally is aware of Phoenix hasn’t been his greatest observe these days. He has three victories at Phoenix in his profession, however was thirty fourth within the spring (the place he was concerned in a crash) and 18th a yr in the past. But go forward, doubt Logano at your peril.
Prediction: Championship 4 however no title (handed from eradicated within the semi-finals)
5. Denny Hamlin (L: 4)
Joe Gibbs Racing no. 11 Toyota
Position: fifth, -27 on the finish of the playoffs
End Homestead 2023: 30
This spherical ought to have been good for Hamlin, however with the pit points and performances that had been superb however not as nice as earlier this yr, it looks as if issues are slipping away… once more. But he has three profession wins at Homestead and 5 at Martinsville. So a second of distancing is completely attainable.
Prediction: Eliminated within the semi-finals (change from Championship 4)
6. Chase Elliott (LW: 5)
Chevrolet no. 9 by Hendrick Motorsports
Position: eighth, -53 on the finish of the playoffs
End Homestead 2023: fifteenth
Elliott stated he feels he must win and that will imply a primary for him at Homestead or a second for him at Martinsville. He has simply two top-5s in eight begins at Homestead. But Martinville? He led 1,104 laps there with six stage wins and 6 top-5 finishes. So do not anticipate a profession day at Homestead to place him again within the combine in factors as a result of there might be hope in Martinsville.
Prediction: Eliminated within the semi-finals (no modifications)
7. Ryan Blaney (L: 6)
Team Penske No. 12 Fords
Position: seventh, -47 on the finish of the playoffs
2023 Homestead Finish: 2nd
Blaney picked a foul time to have a foul weekend as a punctured tire put him into the wall in follow after which he was concerned in a crash through the Las Vegas race. He gained the elimination race at Martinsville a yr in the past on his option to the title – and he’ll need to get a few of that mojo again.
Prediction: Eliminated within the semi-finals (no modifications)
8. Tyler Reddick (L: 7)
23XI Racing no. 45 Toyota
Position: fifth, -30 on the finish of the playoffs
2023 Homestead Finish: third
It appears to be like to be a playoff to overlook for Reddick. Yes, he is nice at Homestead with three top-5s in 4 begins. Martinsville, nonetheless, just isn’t probably the most favorable observe for him (19.3 remaining common and no laps led). The rut this workforce appears to be in is likely to be just a little too deep.
Prediction: Eliminated within the semi-finals (no modifications)
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He spent many years protecting motorsports, together with greater than 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene journal and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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