Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
One of the largest video games of the school soccer season is that this weekend, as No. 4 Ohio State takes on No. 3 Penn State.
And we’ll be capable of watch all of it unfold on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
There’s a play in that sport that I actually like, and it won’t be what you are considering.
Read on to see why I’m betting on the Under earlier than the massive Big Ten battle, plus a few different greatest bets I’ve for the thrilling weekend of school ball.
(All instances ET)
Saturday 2 November
No. 4 Ohio State @No.3 Pen State (midday, FOX e FOX Sports software)
I’ve critical doubts about each groups’ capacity to attain on this match.
Ohio State has elite weapons at large receiver and quarterback in Will Howard, who can get the ball to these star Buckeyes. However, their offensive line is a large number in the mean time, with left deal with Josh Simmons out and most probably his backup as nicely.
We noticed final weekend the influence of Simmons’ absence from the lineup. The offense could not transfer the ball in opposition to Nebraska. He really had hassle throwing the ball in opposition to Oregon when Simmons went out in that sport.
We know Ohio State’s offense is designed to be a primary below Chip Kelly and having accidents would not assist with that sport plan.
Penn State’s defensive position is stout and the whole protection ranks eleventh in factors per drive. The Nittany Lions have a excessive price of chaos and restrict explosive performs. While Ohio State has these explosive weapons, the Buckeyes do not use them sufficient.
Penn State additionally has a query mark at quarterback. Drew Allar could also be out with a knee damage. Regardless, the issue stays the identical: the Nittany Lions do not generate explosive offensive performs with their large receivers. Yes, they’ve an elite tight finish, however that is not sufficient in opposition to Ohio State’s protection. Penn State scored simply 21 factors in opposition to Illinois and needed to struggle to twenty-eight in opposition to Wisconsin.
I feel the Nittany Lions wrestle to attain on this sport in opposition to the very best protection they’ve confronted all season. Below is my play.
SELECTION: Under 45 factors scored by each groups mixed
Which groups will miss the CFP? Ohio State, Tulane, Kansas State greatest bets and odds
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Air Force @No. 21 Army (midday, CBS)
In school soccer, Army’s offense ranks first in factors per drive.
Yes, you heard that proper: the Black Knights rating the very best per drive.
They are second in dashing success price and fourth in passing success price and that is most probably as a result of they do not throw it typically. They are additionally first when it comes to success price within the pink zone. Army scores a variety of factors and guess what? Air Force’s protection permits at the very least 5 touchdowns per sport on the street.
Air Force is likely one of the worst groups within the sport. The Falcons are 1-6 and have did not cowl a single sport this season. It’s dangerous. Their protection is 98th in factors per drive, 103rd in defensive EPA in opposition to the run, and so they permit a ton of huge performs.
Taking management of service academy video games could be a tough problem on account of all of the rushed makes an attempt. Data has proven that when each groups are very energetic, the quantity of ball possession for each groups is restricted. Fewer alternatives to have the ball ought to equal fewer factors.
However, Air Force is breaking that pattern this season as a result of its offense is horrible.
While Army’s opponents common simply 9 offensive possessions this season, groups enjoying Air Force get 11 possessions as a result of the Falcons’ offense would not get first downs.
Even if we break up the distinction over 10 possessions for Army, I feel the Black Knights rating a landing on 5 of them.
PICK: Army staff complete Over 31.5 factors scored
Ohio State vs Penn State: Which coach will get this win?
USC @ Washington (7.30pm, BTN)
USC and Washington are the identical staff: they need to rating extra factors than them, they make silly errors to complete video games and each are poor on the street.
Washington is 4-0 at dwelling and 0-4 on the street. USC is 1-3 away from dwelling and 3-1 at dwelling.
Well, fortunately for Washington, this sport is in Seattle.
Washington hasn’t performed at dwelling in a month, whereas USC travels to Huskies territory within the chilly. UW’s offense and protection are 25% higher on third down whereas enjoying at dwelling than when enjoying on the street. Huskies cease working higher. They make the passer run higher. Part of that’s their opponents, and the one they face this weekend has a horrible offensive line.
And USC’s defensive position is barely higher.
It’s only a powerful matchup for the Trojans. It’s additionally price noting that USC has been the street favourite thrice this season and hasn’t received any of these video games. Coach Lincoln Riley is simply 3-13 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) as a street favourite in his final 16 alternatives. It’s simply not good.
I like Washington masking.
PICK: Washington (+3) will lose by lower than 3 factors or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 completely different groups. He began at proper deal with for the University of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.
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