Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs try to do what no staff has performed within the Super Bowl period: three-peat.
Will they be those to make historical past?
Ahead of this weekend’s wild card spherical, FOX Sports has recognized the 5 NFL groups that pose Kansas City’s largest risk to a 3rd consecutive Lombardi Trophy.
We first created this checklist previous to the 2024 season, within the context of final season. The groups have been revealed in descending order and the checklist was as follows: Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, and Baltimore Ravens.
But with the context of this season, the checklist has modified. The Niners, for instance, didn’t qualify after lacking the playoffs.
With the postseason upon us, right here is our up to date checklist of Chiefs challengers, in descending order:
5. Philadelphia Eagles
Snapshot: The Eagles’ second 14-win season was fueled by the acquisition of free agent Saquon Barkley, who grew to become simply the ninth participant in league historical past to hurry for two,000 yards in a season. But Philadelphia additionally boasts, arguably, the very best protection in soccer. However, quarterback Jalen Hurts’ standing is unclear as he enters the postseason. He missed Philadelphia’s closing two common season video games with a concussion, and his standing stays unsure for the staff’s wild-card spherical sport Saturday in opposition to the Packers.
Why the Eagles can beat the Chiefs: Mahomes, together with his uncanny potential to increase passes, could have restricted alternatives to efficiently push the ball downfield in opposition to a gifted Eagles secondary. In the common season, Philadelphia ranked first in whole passing protection (174.2 passing yards allowed per sport) and second in passing EPA allowed per sport, in response to Next Gen Stats. That may pressure the Chiefs to lean on a speeding assault that ranked simply twenty second in 2024. The Eagles aren’t sloppy in run protection both, rating tenth in run protection (104.2 speeding yards allowed per sport) and fifth in speeding EPA per play allowed, in response to Next Gen Stats.
4. Minnesota Vikings
Snapshot: The Vikings have been one of many largest shock groups of 2024. Despite the departure of Kirk Cousins in free company and the lack of first-round rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy to a torn meniscus within the preseason, Minnesota received 14 video games (second most in franchise historical past) within the common season behind a resurgent Sam Darnold at quarterback. Coach Kevin O’Connell, who guided the Vikings to at the least 13 wins in two of his first three years on the helm, leads a dynamic offense as a playcaller. Coordinator Brian Flores leads among the best and most aggressive defenses within the NFL.
How Sam Darnold resurrected his profession with the Vikings
Why the Vikings can beat the Chiefs: As elite because the Chiefs protection has been in 2024 – fourth in factors allowed and ninth in yards allowed – there are methods to take advantage of it by the air. Kansas City was center of the pack in passing EPA per play allowed within the common season on intermediate throws (15), the place a lot of Minnesota’s success this season has been rooted. According to Next Gen Stats, Darnold’s 140 intermediate shot makes an attempt within the common season ranked second within the league behind Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals. Superstar Justin Jefferson additionally led all broad receivers in receiving yards on intermediate throws in the course of the common season (678).
3. Detroit Lions
Snapshot: The Lions received a franchise-record 15 video games, overcame a rash of accidents all through the season and maintained their standing as a legit Super Bowl contender. Detroit continued its historic offensive dominance below playcaller Ben Johnson in 2024, scoring 50-plus factors twice and having 4 gamers document at the least 1,000 scrimmage yards (receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams; operating backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery). Coordinator Aaron Glenn bought sufficient from his decimated protection to carry the Vikings to 9 factors in Week 18, serving to the Lions safe the No. 1 general seed within the NFC.
Have the Lions cemented their standing because the NFL’s scariest staff heading into the playoffs?
Why the Lions can beat the Chiefs: Their aggressiveness on fourth down.
Playing in opposition to the Chiefs you may’t be shy once you’re in a scoring place. You must have the desire (and competence) to pursue at the least one landing figuring out that Mahomes is on the opposite finish. Led by coach Dan Campbell, Detroit not solely embodies that aggressiveness, but in addition has the extraordinary offensive expertise to remain one step forward of Kansas City in a possible Super Bowl matchup.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Lions ranked second in EPA per play and EPA per move on fourth down and fifth in EPA per rush on fourth down in the course of the common season. On the opposite hand, the Chiefs rank twelfth in EPA per play allowed on fourth down, however are 18th in EPA allowed per rush try on down. That indicators potential alternatives for the star operating again tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, the latter of whom is predicted to be prepared for the divisional spherical after lacking the top of the common season with an MCL damage.
2. Baltimore Crows
Snapshot: The Ravens overcame an 0-2 begin to win 12 video games, securing their second straight AFC North season. Quarterback Lamar Jackson grew to become the primary participant in league historical past to document at the least 4,000 passing yards and 800 speeding yards in the identical season, and in addition surpassed Michael Vick to turn into the NFL’s all-time main speeding quarterback, making him Josh Allen’s largest challenger for MVP. But Jackson had loads of assist in the backfield with the acquisition of free agent Derrick Henry, who completed with 1,921 speeding yards and 18 whole touchdowns. After struggling within the first half of the season, Baltimore’s protection additionally picked up late within the yr, giving it the look of a whole staff coming into the postseason.
Why the Ravens can beat the Chiefs: We begin with Henry. Yes, Kansas City saved him in verify when the groups met within the common season opener (a 27-20 Chiefs win): 13 carries, 46 yards. But the Ravens are a distinct staff than they have been in September. This was earlier than Baltimore’s offensive line bought into sync. The perennial Pro Bowl operating again went on to document his second season of at the least 1,900 speeding yards.
Henry in tempo is unhealthy information for Kansas City, which has traditionally struggled in opposition to him. In his six appearances in opposition to the Chiefs earlier than this season, together with the playoffs, Henry had 672 speeding yards and eight touchdowns on 5.6 yards per carry.
In the AFC Championship Game loss to the Chiefs final season, the Ravens escaped from the chase within the second half, regardless of their deficit by no means being greater than 10 factors. Henry’s presence would give Baltimore a dynamic weapon exterior of Jackson’s legs within the speeding assault.
1. Buffalo payments
Snapshot: Many league observers anticipated this to be a reset yr in Buffalo, which moved on from a number of key gamers final offseason, together with perennial Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs, who was traded to the Houston Texans. But the staff far exceeded expectations, profitable 13 video games and securing the AFC East for the fifth consecutive yr. The Bills even beat two eventual 14-win groups within the Chiefs and Lions. Allen is the betting favourite to win NFL MVP.
(Related: Is Josh Allen the MVP? His Bills teammates say, ‘Just flip the tape on’)
(Related: Why Bills QB Josh Allen deserves MVP honors over Ravens’ Lamar Jackson)
Why the Bills can beat the Chiefs: The Bills haven’t been capable of convert common season success into playoff success in opposition to Kansas City within the Allen period (4-1 common season, 0-3 postseason), however their potential to use strain would give them a bonus. filmed this yr.
Buffalo boasted a 34.7% strain charge in the course of the common season, although it blitzed on the fourth-lowest charge within the league (19.4%). In different phrases, the Bills have the power to shake Mahomes with the entrance 4, permitting them to remain basically wholesome on the again finish.
And Mahomes has been sacked 36 occasions this season. He additionally had a career-high 5.85 sack charge. When the Bills beat the Chiefs in Week 11, handing Kansas City their first lack of the season, they generated a 37.1% strain charge (fifth most Mahomes confronted this season) and 13 pressures (seventh), with a type of pressures creating considered one of his two interceptions.
The Bills have already crushed the Chiefs as soon as this season. Here’s why they could do it once more. And in the event that they did, it might imply the top of the Kansas City dream.
Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He beforehand labored for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, the place he was Titans beat the author for a yr and a half. It lined the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for 3 seasons (2018-20) earlier than transferring to Tennessee. You can comply with Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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