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Hong Kong has lengthy been probably the most visitors air load hub on the planet, managing greater than 4.3 million tons of load final 12 months. The metropolis airport performs a basic function within the international provide chain, connecting the Chinese industrial base with the remainder of the world. But its strategic place additionally makes more and more weak to the rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, in addition to the impression of the charges of the President of the United States Donald Trump.
Multinational firms depend on Hong Kong for deposit and distribution, whereas international logistics suppliers similar to UPS and airways for all cargo as Air Hong Kong use town as a key transport middle. Cathay Pacific, the highest vector of town, was one of many largest beneficiaries of this load quantity, with loading providers that characterize greater than 1 / 4 of the entire revenues.
The revenues of Cathay load have grown consistently, pushed by greater transport charges and a robust demand for and -commerce and increasing exchanges, significantly in electronics. Overall, final 12 months the tonnage of the group load elevated by 11 %. Between Europe and Asia, pharmaceutical and perishable merchandise, together with shipments associated to China by markets such because the United Kingdom, France and Belgium, are guiding development in its particular loading actions.
The rising charges collected by the Trump administration and the renewed management over Chinese exports depart the Hong Kong air load sector more and more weak to exterior shocks. The charges enhance the price of the cross -border commerce, shaking the corporate’s margins and making air transport much less handy. Companies who want to defend their earnings can begin transferring the most affordable, though slower, belongings similar to maritime or earth.
If the multinationals diversify their provide chains in response to geopolitical dangers, such because the switch of manufacturing to the United States or within the Southeast Asia, the availability chains will develop into extra fragmented, decreasing the load volumes by Hong Kong because the demand for Hub of other re -ported hub grows.
The lengthy -term impression extends past freight transport. Economic uncertainty can even weaken the demand for enterprise journeys, a key income driver for vectors that handle American-cinestone routes.
Hong Kong stays indispensable for international logistics and Cathay Pacific continues to gather prizes. His revenues elevated multiple tenth final 12 months at HK $ 104.4 billion ($ 13.3 billion) whereas his actions have elevated by a 3rd within the final six months, reflecting robust development.
But the forces concerned are actually bigger than any single airline or airport. The resilience of the Hong Kong cargo sector relies upon not solely on the demand for freight transport, but additionally on a wider geopolitical dynamic. On this entrance, an important air visitors controller is the one discovered within the oval workplace.
June.yoon@ft.com
