Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The NFL Wild Card odds function six matchups of various intrigue. One that’s actually fascinating is Saturday evening’s conflict between division rivals.
For the third time this season, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens meet. But this time the purpose differential is at its peak, even reaching double digits.
“Ten is an enormous quantity, particularly for a division rival,” mentioned Joey Feazel, chief business officer for Caesars Sports. “But the Steelers’ decline in current weeks shall be recent in bettors’ minds.”
Oddsmakers and skilled bettors give us their insights on Steelers vs. Ravens and the remainder of the video games as we dive into NFL Wild Card Weekend betting.
The Saturday evening conflict
Baltimore is the No. 3 seed within the AFC, having completed the common season 12-5 (SU) and 10-6-1 in opposition to the unfold (ATS). The Ravens are additionally doing nicely, successful and protecting the purpose differential of their final 4 video games.
That features a Week 16 matchup during which Lamar Jackson & Co. doubled Pittsburgh 34-17 as 7.5-point house favorites.
On the opposite hand, the Steelers (10-7 SU/11-6 ATS) have misplaced their final 4 video games and are 1-3 ATS. That’s why Pittsburgh is on the street this week because the No. 6 seed, as a substitute of sitting because the AFC North champion and internet hosting a playoff recreation.
It’s additionally why Caesars opened the Ravens as 9.5-point favorites and spent the primary half of this week at -10, earlier than falling again to -9.5 on Wednesday afternoon. But it isn’t all motion in Baltimore but.
“Right now, we’re fairly even on this recreation, surprisingly,” Feazel mentioned, whereas noting that he would not anticipate that to occur at 8 PM ET on Saturday. “I’m certain we’ll want the Steelers on recreation day.”
The NFL rocks on FOX
FOX will get a matchup that oddsmakers and bettors are eagerly anticipating: Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles, at 4:30 PM ET on Sunday.
The Eagles (14-3 SU/11-6 ATS) are the No. 2 seed within the NFC. The Packers (11-6 SU/9-8 ATS) are the No. 1 seed. 7, incomes the ultimate NFC postseason slot. Green Bay can also be a bit of run down. Quarterback Jordan Love (elbow) is predicted to play, however wideout Christian Watson is out after tearing his proper anterior cruciate ligament in final week’s 24-22 loss to Chicago.
Philly QB Jalen Hurts has missed the final two video games whereas in concussion protocol. But he practiced on Wednesday and needs to be a superb Sunday.
Caesars Sports opened the Eagles at -4 Sunday evening and guess as little as -5.5 late Monday morning. The line has since stabilized at Philadelphia -4.5, however the inventory is leaning.
“We’re seeing one-way visitors right here on the Eagles. There are a variety of Eagles supporters on this spot,” Feazel mentioned. “Unlike final 12 months, the Eagles have solely gotten higher each week. And they’re bringing in a brand new Saquon Barkley.”
Barkley was rested in Week 18 after racking up 2,005 speeding yards and 13 touchdowns on the bottom.
And in response to Feazel on enchancment: Last 12 months, Philly misplaced 5 of its closing six common season video games, then was eradicated by Tampa Bay in Wild Card Weekend. This 12 months, the Eagles enter the playoffs on a 12-1 SU run, posting a 9-4 ATS in that stretch.
Lamar Jackson or Russell Wilson: Which QB has extra at stake within the playoff matchup?
Sharp aspect of the NFL
Professional bettor Randy McKay he has a few playoff bets in his pocket. The first is a two-team six-point teaser, pairing the Buffalo Bills -2.5 in opposition to the Denver Broncos with the Los Angeles Rams +7.5 in opposition to the Minnesota Vikings.
For readability: a teaser is similar to a parlay, however with shorter odds/decrease payouts attributable to modified level spreads. In this case, McKay’s teaser subtracts 6 factors from the Bills’ unfold and provides 6 factors from the Rams’ unfold.
“I like going through rookie QBs, particularly beginning playoff video games on the street,” McKay mentioned, alluding to Broncos starter Bo Nix. “Denver’s protection hasn’t been capable of assert itself in opposition to higher offenses. The Bills protection depends on turnovers and so they’ll get a few these right here. It’ll be powerful for Denver to maintain up.”
Despite going 14-3 SU (11-5-1 ATS), Minnesota is the No. 1 seed. 5 within the NFC, after shedding 31-9 at Detroit in Week 18.
“This is a really tough time for the Vikings, coming off the (large) No. 1 seed recreation in opposition to Detroit,” McKay mentioned. “I nonetheless see an in depth recreation. These two groups performed earlier this 12 months in an in depth recreation.”
In Week 8, the Rams led the visiting Vikings 21-20 getting into the fourth quarter. Los Angeles added a landing and a security to win 30-20.
McKay additionally likes Pittsburgh to be a 10-point underdog to Baltimore.
“It’s the third assembly this 12 months. Pittsburgh received the primary, Baltimore received the second,” McKay mentioned. “This line is inflated by how every group has performed just lately. Baltimore’s finest huge receiver, Zay Flowers (knee), is questionable. And I nonetheless do not belief Baltimore’s protection to cowl a double-digit unfold.”
Nick’s wildcard ranges: Steelers, Texans in acquainted territory; Clothes prepared
Super charger
Feazel believes the Los Angeles Chargers are in an enviable place because the No. 5 seed. That means a visit to a No. 4 Houston Texans group that has struggled at a number of factors this season.
“The Chargers overtook the Steelers in that No. 5 seed, and everybody needs to be on this matchup,” Feazel mentioned.
Los Angeles (11-6 SU/12-5 ATS) opened as a 3-point favourite and stays there till Wednesday evening for the opening Wild Card recreation, 4:30 PM ET on Saturday. Houston (10-7 SU/11-6 ATS) had a midseason stretch during which they misplaced three of 4, whereas the Texans misplaced at Kansas City and at house to Baltimore in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively.
There’s no disgrace in shedding to KC or Baltimore. But the Ravens’ loss was an annihilation, with Houston falling 31-2.
“So far we’re seeing principally Chargers motion. It’s fairly one-sided, however the market would not wish to transfer away from these 3,” Feazel mentioned.
Greg Olsen breaks down the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers Wild Card matchup
The remainder of the story
Feazel additionally offered insights on the opposite three matchups, beginning with Sunday’s recreation at 1:00 PM ET between the No. 5 Broncos. 7 and the Bills no. 2. Buffalo (13-4 SU/10-7 ATS) opened as a 9-point house favourite and fell a notch to -8.5.
“From an motion perspective, we’re seeing the center of the Super Bowl, the place bettors are betting 8.5/9 with the Bills or taking part in the Broncos on the moneyline,” Feazel mentioned.
The Broncos (10-7 SU/12-5 ATS) are +360 on the moneyline, which means a $100 guess would yield $360 (whole win $460) within the unlikely occasion of an upset.
The different two matchups: Washington Commanders (12-5 SU/10-6-1 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7 SU and ATS); and the Minnesota Vikings (14-3 SU/11-5-1 ATS) vs. the Los Angeles Rams (10-7 SU/9-8 ATS). Feazel’s ideas on these contests:
- Commanders vs. Buccaneers: Caesars opened the Bucs as 3.5-point house favorites and shortly went to -3. That’s the place the road stays for Sunday’s kickoff at 8 PM ET. “It’s two-way motion on the unfold, however there’s extra choice on the full. Jayden Daniels has an explosive offense and not-so-great protection. So as a substitute of taking sides, bettors are taking up.” The whole of fifty is the very best of the six Wild Card video games.
- Vikings vs Rams: The Vikes opened with -2 and briefly bought to -2.5 on Monday, however the unfold then dropped to Pick ’em on Wednesday evening. Now it is Minnesota -1. “We’re seeing more cash for the Rams. The Vikings embarrassed themselves in Detroit, and there is form of a sense of not being certain Sam Darnold can deal with this place.”
Keep an eye fixed on the Vikings-Rams recreation, at present set for Monday at 8pm ET. It could also be on the transfer because of the huge fires within the Los Angeles space. On Wednesday, there have been discussions about shifting the sport to the Arizona Cardinals’ stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
Must-win playoff showdown: Buffalo Bills or Denver Broncos?
I like large bets and I am unable to lie
As it seems, excessive rollers are conserving their powder dry till later this week. No main bets on NFL Wild Card Weekend odds have been reported but. But relaxation assured, they’re coming.
Meanwhile, there’s an fascinating guess pointing to an enormous return for Detroit Lions defenseman Aidan Hutchinson. You might do not forget that Hutchinson broke his left leg throughout Detroit’s 47-9 Week 6 blowout in opposition to Dallas.
This occurred on October 13, with restoration instances anticipated to take between 4 and 6 months. Hutchinson would apparently have turned 4 months previous on Super Bowl Sunday, Feb. 9.
It’s not a protracted shot that No. 1 seed Detroit will attain the Super Bowl. After all, the Lions are +290 favorites at Caesars to win the championship. But Hutchinson remains to be unlikely to return.
If he does, although, and appears like he did within the first 5 video games of the season – when he collected seven sacks – then this guess might get much more intriguing: $500 on Hutchinson +15000 (150/1) to win Super MVP Bowl.
If Hutchinson had been to come back again and tear up the Superdome, the Caesars buyer might earn $75,000. It’s a comeback story price watching and rooting for.
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting business. He lives in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys taking part in golf in 110-degree warmth. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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